预览加载中，请您耐心等待几秒...

通胀预期形成机理研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析.docx

预览
1/5
2/5
3/5
4/5
5/5

在线预览结束，喜欢就下载吧，查找使用更方便

下载提示 文本预览

如果您无法下载资料，请参考说明：

1、部分资料下载需要金币，请确保您的账户上有足够的金币

2、已购买过的文档，再次下载不重复扣费

3、资料包下载后请先用软件解压，在使用对应软件打开

通胀预期形成机理研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析 Abstract ThispaperusestheSVARmodeltoinvestigatethemechanismofinflationexpectationformation,focusingontheresponseofinflationexpectationstomonetarypolicyshocksandtheinfluenceofexternalfactors.Theempiricalanalysisshowsthatmonetarypolicyshockshaveasignificantimpactoninflationexpectations,andthatexternalfactorssuchasoilpricesalsoplayaroleininfluencinginflationexpectations.Moreover,theresultssuggestthatinflationexpectationsarelargelyformedthroughtwochannels:theadaptiveexpectationschannelandtheforward-lookingexpectationschannel.Finally,thispaperdiscussesthepolicyimplicationsofthesefindingsforinflationmanagement. Keywords:inflationexpectations,SVARmodel,monetarypolicyshocks,adaptiveexpectations,forward-lookingexpectations 1.Introduction Inflationexpectationsplayacrucialroleinmodernmonetarypolicy.Centralbanksusevarioustoolstocontrolinflation,suchasinterestratepolicy,openmarketoperations,andreserverequirements,amongothers.However,theeffectivenessofthesetoolsdependsonhowhouseholdsandfirmsformtheirinflationexpectations.Ifhouseholdsandfirmsexpectinflationtobehigh,theymaydemandhigherwagesandprices,causinginflationtorise.Ontheotherhand,iftheyexpectlowinflation,theymaybelesslikelytodemandhigherwagesandprices,keepinginflationincheck. Therefore,understandingthemechanismofinflationexpectationformationisessentialforcentralbankstomanageinflation.Inrecentyears,therehasbeenagrowingbodyofliteratureoninflationexpectations,usingvariousapproachessuchassurveys,models,andexperiments.ThisstudyfocusesontheempiricalanalysisofinflationexpectationformationusingthestructuralVAR(SVAR)model,whichhasbeenwidelyusedintheliteratureonmacroeconomicforecastingandpolicyanalysis. Themainobjectiveofthispaperistoinvestigatethefollowingquestions:Whatisthemechanismofinflationexpectationformation?Howdoinflationexpectationsrespondtomonetarypolicyshocks?Arethereanyexternalfactorsinfluencinginflationexpectations?Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2reviewstheliteratureoninflationexpec