麦肯锡公司价值评估经典模型.pdf

ATutorialontheDiscountedCashFlow
ModelforValuationofCompanies

L.PeterJennergren∗

Sixthrevision,August25,2006

SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1

Abstract

Allstepsofthediscountedcashflowmodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:
calculationoffreecashflow,forecastingoffutureaccountingdata(incomestate-
mentsandbalancesheets),anddiscountingoffreecashflow.Thereisparticular
emphasisonforecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoProperty,Plant,
andEquipment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalled
McKay),asanillustration.Anumberofothervaluationmodels(abnormalearn-
ings,adjustedpresentvalue,economicvalueadded,anddiscounteddividends)are
alsodiscussed.Earlierversionsofthisworkingpaperwereentitled“ATutorialon
theMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompanies”.

Keywords:Valuation,freecashflow,discounting,accountingdata
JELclassification:G31,M41,C60

∗StockholmSchoolofEconomics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.Theauthorisindebtedto
TomasHjelstr¨om,JoakimLevin,PerOlsson,KenthSkogsvik,andIgnacioVelez-Parejafordiscussions
andcomments.

1
1Introduction

Thistutorialexplainsallthestepsofthediscountedcashflowmodel,prominently
featuredinabookbyanauthorteamfromMcKinsey&Company(TimKoller,Marc
Goedhart,andDavidWessels:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompa-
nies,Wiley,Hoboken,NewJersey;4thed.2005).Thepurposeistoenablethereaderto
setupacompletevaluationmodelofhis/herown,atleastforacompanywithasimple
structure.Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluationexample.The
companythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.1
TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample
(concerningatruckingcompany)inthefirsttwoeditionsofValuation:Measuringand
ManagingtheValueofCompanies(Copelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994).How-
ever,certainsimplificationshavebeenmade,foreasierunderstandingofthemodel.In
particular,thecapitalstructureofMcKayiscomposedonlyofequityanddebt(i.e.,
noconvertiblebonds,etc.).Also,McKayhasnocapitalleasesorcapitalizedpension
liabi