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麦肯锡公司价值评估详细指导.pdf

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ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompaniesL.PeterJennergren∗FourthrevisionAugust262002SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1AbstractAllstepsoftheMcKinseymodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:calculationoffreecashflowforecastingoffutureaccountingdata(profitandlossaccountsandbalancesheets)anddiscountingoffreecashflow.ThereisparticularemphasisonforecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoPropertyPlantandEquip-ment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalledMcKay)asanillustration.Keywords:ValuationfreecashflowdiscountingaccountingdataJELclassification:G31M41C60∗StockholmSchoolofEconomicsBox6501S-11383StockholmSweden.TheauthorisindebtedtoJoakimLevinPerOlssonandKenthSkogsvikfordiscussionsandcomments.11IntroductionThistutorialexplainsallthestepsoftheMcKinseyvaluationmodelalsoreferredtoasthediscountedcashflowmodelanddescribedinTomCopelandTimKollerandJackMurrin:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies(WileyNewYork;1sted.19902nded.19943rded.2000).Thepurposeistoenablethereadertosetupacompletevaluationmodelofhis/herownatleastforacompanywithasimplestructure(e.g.acompanythatdoesnotconsistofseveralbusinessunitsandisnotinvolvedinextensiveforeignoperations).Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluationexample.ThecompanythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample(con-cerningatruckingcompany)inCopelandetal.1990Copelandetal.1994.Howevercertainsimplificationshavebeenmadeforeasierund