麦肯锡公司价值评估详细指导(英文版).pdf

ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelfor
ValuationofCompanies

L.PeterJennergren∗
Fourthrevision,August26,2002

SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1

Abstract

AllstepsoftheMcKinseymodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:calculation
offreecashflow,forecastingoffutureaccountingdata(profitandlossaccountsand
balancesheets),anddiscountingoffreecashflow.Thereisparticularemphasison
forecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoProperty,Plant,andEquip-
ment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalledMcKay),
asanillustration.

Keywords:Valuation,freecashflow,discounting,accountingdata
JELclassification:G31,M41,C60

∗StockholmSchoolofEconomics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.Theauthorisindebtedto
JoakimLevin,PerOlsson,andKenthSkogsvikfordiscussionsandcomments.

1
1Introduction

ThistutorialexplainsallthestepsoftheMcKinseyvaluationmodel,alsoreferredto
asthediscountedcashflowmodelanddescribedinTomCopeland,TimKoller,andJack
Murrin:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies(Wiley,NewYork;
1sted.1990,2nded.1994,3rded.2000).Thepurposeistoenablethereadertosetupa
completevaluationmodelofhis/herown,atleastforacompanywithasimplestructure
(e.g.,acompanythatdoesnotconsistofseveralbusinessunitsandisnotinvolvedin
extensiveforeignoperations).Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluation
example.ThecompanythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.
TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample(con-
cerningatruckingcompany)inCopelandetal.1990,Copelandetal.1994.However,
certainsimplificationshavebeenmade,foreasierunderstandingofthemodel.Inpar-
ticular,thecapitalstructureofMcKayiscomposedonlyofequityanddebt(i.e.,no
convertiblebonds,etc.).ThepurposeoftheMcKayexampleismerelytopresentall
essentialaspectsoftheMcKinseymodelassimplyaspossible.Someofthehistorical
incomestatementandbalancesheetdatahavebeentakenfromthePrestonexample.
However,theforecastedincomestatementsandbalancesheetsaretotallydifferentfrom
Preston’s.Allmonetaryunitsareunspecifi