李静仪-短期资本流动的驱动因素研究.doc

本科论文本科论文本科论文本科论文摘要随着全球经济和信息化的不断发展，短期国际资本在不同国家之间的流动也变得越来越频繁。从美联储不再实行量化宽松政策之后，人民币贬值的压力越来越大，我国大量的短期资本从我国境内流出。短期资本流入流出幅度过大，会严重影响一国经济的稳定发展。近年来，中国的短期资本流动的规模也在不断的扩大，2018年中国贸易战的爆发对我国的资本流动产生了很大的不利影响，加上现在新冠肺炎疫情的影响，在此背景下，研究我国短期国际资本流动的驱动因素对我国宏观经济政策的制定和经济的发展都有着十分重要的意义。本文主要以汇率市场、利率市场和资本市场为主要因素通过建立多元回归方程的方法进行短期资本流动驱动因素的研究，研究结果表明，汇率和利率对短期资本的影响幅度较大，显著性较强，而M2与短期资本流动之间的显著性较弱。关键词：短期资本流动，利率，汇率驱动因素AbstractSincetheFederalReservenolongerimplementsquantitativeeasing,thepressureofRMBdepreciationhasbeenincreasing,andalargeamountofshort-termcapitalinChinahasflowedoutofourcountry.Short-termcapitalinflowsandoutflowsaretoolarge,whichwillseriouslyaffectthestabledevelopmentofacountry'seconomy.Inrecentyears,thescaleofChina'sshort-termcapitalflowshasalsobeenexpanding,theoutbreakofChina'stradewarin2018hashadagreatnegativeimpactonChina'scapitalflows,coupledwiththeimpactofthecurrentoutbreakofnewcrownpneumonia,inthiscontext,Itisofgreatsignificancetostudythedriversofchina'sshort-terminternationalcapitalflowintheformulationofChina'smacroeconomicpolicyandeconomicdevelopment.Thispapermainlytakestheexchangeratemarket,interestratemarketandcapitalmarketasthemainfactorstostudythedrivingfactorsofshort-termcapitalflowthroughtheestablishmentofmultipleregressionequations.Theresearchresultsshowthattheexchangerateandinterestratehaveagreaterimpactonshort-termcapitalandaremoresignificant,AndthesignificancebetweenM2andshort-termcapitalflowsisweak.Keywords:Short-termcapitalflows,Interestrates,Exchangerates,Drivers目录TOC\o"1-3"\h\z\uHYPERLINK\l"_Toc38622655"前言PAGEREF_Toc38622655\h1HYPERLINK\l"_Toc38622656"1.短期资本流动的概念PAGEREF_Toc38622656\h2HYPERLINK\l"_Toc38622657"1.1短期资本流动的定义PAGEREF_Toc38622657\h2HYPERLINK\l"_Toc38