全球金融风险加剧下的黄金牛市.docx

编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第页共NUMPAGES20页第PAGE\*MERGEFORMAT20页共NUMPAGES\*MERGEFORMAT20页全球金融风险加剧下的黄金牛市BullishGoldMarketunderIncreasedGlobalFinancialRisks经琢成内容概述：国际政治局势动荡以及原油价格冲击100美元/桶的助推下，COMEX黄金从1月5日的612美元/盎司一路上涨至最高点851美元/盎司。世界经济增长相对强劲，各经济体分化加剧。美国受次级抵押贷款的爆发，导致其经济增长放缓，美元贬值等现象，造成国际游资转向新兴市场。而与此同时，新兴市场将面临新一轮的通货膨胀预期，支持了黄金牛市。全球金融形势下行风险增加，影响到金融信用发展。在未来金融风险或将加剧的情况下，黄金作为除纸币外最好的一种货币形式，其金融属性将被市场越加重视。黄金投资需求日趋旺盛。由于高杠杆产品的投资风险逐渐扩大，基金会提高其在收益稳定性产品上投资组合中的比例，而黄金将成为首选。我们认为黄金牛市将在2008年继续，但不会同2007年8月底至11月那样疯狂上涨，而是振荡上行。Abstract:RespondingtointernationalpoliticalturbulencesandpropelledbythecrudeoilpriceapproachingUS$100/barrel,thepriceofCOMEXTgoldreacheditshighestpointatUS$851/ounce,afteracontinuousrisefromitsJanuary5thpriceatUS$612/ounce.Theworldeconomygrewstrenuously,whereasthediversificationprocessamongthevariouslocaleconomiesspedup.ThebreakdownoftheUSsubprimemortgagemarketcausedaslowdownoftheUSeconomyandadepreciationoftheUSdollars,redirectingfreeflowingcapitaltotheemergingmarkets.Atthesametime,expectationofthenextroundofinflationsintheemergingmarketshelpedtosustainthebullishmarketforgold.Withtheconditionsoftheglobalfinancialmarketchangingfortheworse,risksincrease,whichinturnimpedesthedevelopmentoffinancialcredit.Facedwiththeprospectofgreaterfinancialrisks,themarketwillturnitseyetothefinancialpropertiesofgold,whichstandsoutasthebestformofmoneybesidesbanknotes,andtheinvestmentdemandforgoldwillgrowstronger.Duetothegrowingrisksofhigh-leverageproducts,fundswillenlargetheproportionofsteadyincomeproductsintheirportfolios,withgoldasthefirstchoice.Weexpectthebullishmarketforgoldtocontinuein2008butnotthesameforitsfrenzyduringtheperiodfromlateAugusttoNovemberof2007.Thepricewillcontinueitsoverallupwardmov