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5_定量火灾风险评估.ppt

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Chapter5QuantitativeFireRiskAssessment5.1Overview Inthischapter,quantitativefireriskassessmentisintroduced. Thetermquantitativefireriskassessmentreferstoanassessmentinvolvingnumericalquantificationsnotonlyoftheprobabilityafirehazard,orfirescenariooccurring,butalsotheconsequencesofthatfirehazardorfirescenario.Bymultiplyingthenumericalvaluesofprobabilityandconsequenceeachfirescenarioisgivenanumericalfireriskvalue. Byaccumulatingthesumoftheriskvaluesfromallprobablefirescenarioswecanobtainanoverallfireriskvalue. Theoverallfireriskvaluecanbeusedforcomparisonswiththoseofalternativeorcode-compliantfiresafetydesigns.Ingeneraltherearetwowaystoperformsystematicquantitativefireriskassessmentsasfollows: 1.byusingachecklisttogothroughalistofpotentialfirehazardsandthequantitativeassessmentoftheirfirerisks; 2.byusinganeventtreetogothroughasetofpotentialfirescenariosandthequantitativeassessmentoftheirfirerisks.Inboththesemethods,thevaluesfortheprobabilityandconsequenceparametersareobtainedfromstatisticaldata,iftheyareavailable,orfromsubjectivejudgment,ifsuchdataarenotavailable. (仅在我们本课程的讲解中，采用了统计或主观估计的方式，火灾的结果还可以通过确定性的分析计算获得)5.2ChecklistMethod AswasdiscussedinChapter4,thechecklistmethodemploysthecreationofachecklistofpotentialfirehazardsandtheconsiderationoffireprotectionmeasures,eitherinplaceortobeadded,toarriveatanassessmentofthefirerisks. Thecreationofachecklistofpotentialfirehazardsallowsasystematiccheckofpotentialfirehazardsthatareinplace.Thelistingoffireprotectionmeasuresalongsidewiththepotentialfirehazardsallowsaquickcheckofanysafetydeficienciesandanyneedtoprovideadditionalfireprotectionmeasurestominimizetherisk. Thechecklistmethod,therefore,isanenumerationofpotentialfirehazards,fireprotectionmeasures,eitherinplaceortobeadded,andtheassessmentoftheresidualfirerisks.Itisusedtoidentifyanydeficienciesandanycorrectivemeasuresneededtominimizethefirerisks. Itdoesnotinclude,however,theconsiderationofthelogicaldevelopmentoffireevents,whichwillbediscussedinSection5.3usinganeventtree.A