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财政支出、居民消费与经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的分析.docx

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财政支出、居民消费与经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的分析 1.Introduction Therelationshipbetweengovernmentspending,householdconsumption,andeconomicfluctuationshasbeenatopicofgreatinteresttoeconomistsandpolicymakers.Inthispaper,weaimtoanalyzethisrelationshipusingadynamicgeneralequilibriummodel,knownasDSGE.Specifically,wewillinvestigatehowchangesingovernmentspendingandhouseholdconsumptionaffecttheoveralleconomyintermsofoutput,employment,andinflation. 2.LiteratureReview Therelationshipbetweengovernmentspendingandtheeconomyhasbeenextensivelystudiedintheliterature.TheKeynesianviewsuggeststhatgovernmentspendingcanstimulateeconomicgrowthandemploymentduringtimesofrecessionbyincreasingdemand.However,theneoclassicalviewarguesthatgovernmentspendingcrowdsoutprivateinvestmentandreduceslong-termeconomicgrowth. Householdconsumptionisalsoanimportantfactorindeterminingeconomicgrowth.Ingeneral,higherlevelsofhouseholdconsumptioncanleadtohigherlevelsofeconomicactivity.However,excessiveconsumptioncanleadtoinflationarypressuresandunsustainablegrowth. SeveralstudieshaveusedDSGEmodelstoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweengovernmentspendingandhouseholdconsumption.Forexample,RavnandSterk(2017)findthatincreasesingovernmentspendingcanhaveapositiveeffectonoutputandemploymentintheshortrun,butmayhavenegativeeffectsonlong-termgrowth.Galí(2015)showsthathouseholdscanplayanimportantroleinshapingtheresponseoftheeconomytochangesingovernmentspending. 3.TheModel WeuseaDSGEmodeltoanalyzetherelationshipbetweengovernmentspending,householdconsumption,andeconomicfluctuations.Themodelconsistsofrepresentativeagents,aproductionsector,andagovernmentsector.Therepresentativeagentsarehouseholdsandfirmswhomaximizeutilityandprofits,respectively.Theproductionsectorproducesoutputusinglaborandcapital. Thegovernmentsectorcollectstaxesandspendsonpublicgoodsandservices.Weassumethatthegovernmentspendingisfinancedbytaxesanddebtissuance.Themodelissolvedusingastochasticdynamicprogrammingalgorithm,andcalibratedtomatchkeymacroeconomicvariablessuchasGDP,