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基于舰船受损体积的舰船撞击风险评估的性能特征（英文）.docx

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基于舰船受损体积的舰船撞击风险评估的性能特征（英文） Title:PerformanceCharacteristicsofShipCollisionRiskAssessmentBasedonDamagedVolume Abstract: Shipcollisionsposesignificantriskstothesafetyandoperationofvesselsatsea.Itis,therefore,crucialtoaccuratelyassessthecollisionrisksbasedonthedamagedvolumeofships.Thispaperaimstoexploretheperformancecharacteristicsofshipcollisionriskassessmentmethodsthatrelyontheevaluationofdamagedvolume.Thestudydiscussestheimportanceofsuchassessmentsinmanagingthesafetyofvesselsandproposespotentialimprovementstoenhancetheaccuracyandreliabilityofcollisionriskevaluations. 1.Introduction Shipcollisionscanleadtocatastrophicconsequences,includinglossoflives,substantialpropertydamage,andenvironmentalpollution.Evaluatingthecollisionriskplaysavitalroleindevelopingeffectivepreventivemeasuresandemergencyresponseplans.Traditionalriskassessmentmethodshavefocusedonfactorssuchasshipspeed,accidentprobability,andstructuralresistance.However,consideringthedamagedvolumecouldprovidemoreinsightsandimprovetheaccuracyofriskevaluations.Thispaperexaminestheperformancecharacteristicsofshipcollisionriskassessmentapproachesbasedondamagedvolumeanddiscussestheirpotentialbenefits. 2.ShipCollisionRiskAssessmentMethods Inthissection,variousshipcollisionriskassessmentmethodsbasedondamagedvolumearereviewed.Differentapproaches,suchasdeterministicandprobabilisticmethods,areexplored.Thedeterministicmethodestimatestheship'sstructuralresponsetotheimpactusinganalyticalcalculations,whiletheprobabilisticmethodincorporatesstatisticaldatatoassessthefrequencyandseverityofcollisions.Theadvantagesandlimitationsofeachmethodarediscussed,highlightingtheneedforenhancedaccuracyandreliability. 3.PerformanceEvaluationMetrics Toassesstheperformanceofshipcollisionriskassessmentmethodsaccurately,severalmetricscanbeconsidered.Thesemetricsincludeaccuracy,sensitivity,specificity,falsepositiverate,andfalsenegativerate.Accuracymeasurestheoverallcorrectnessoftheassessment,whilesensitivityandspecificityanalyzethemethod'sabilitytoco