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基于舰船受损体积的舰船撞击风险评估的性能特征（英文）.docx

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基于舰船受损体积的舰船撞击风险评估的性能特征（英文） Withtheincreasingfrequencyofmaritimeactivities,shipcollisionshavebecomeacommonoccurrenceintheoceans.Shipcollisionsoftenresultinseriousconsequences,includinginjuries,fatalities,damagetotheenvironment,andsevereeconomiclosses.Itis,therefore,crucialtoassessandmanagetherisksassociatedwithshipcollisions.Thispaperwillfocusontheperformancecharacteristicsofshipcollisionriskassessmentbasedonthedamagedvolumeoftheships. Thedamagedvolumeofashipisacrucialfactorindeterminingtheimpactofacollision.Thedamagedvolumecanbecalculatedbasedonthecollisionenergyandthestrengthoftheship'sstructure.Thecollisionenergydependsontherelativespeedandmassofthecollidingships.Thestrengthofaship'sstructuredependsonthedesign,constructionmaterials,andmaintenanceleveloftheship.Thus,thedamagedvolumeofashipcanrevealitsvulnerabilityandthepotentialconsequencesofacollision. Theriskofshipcollisionscanbeevaluatedbyanalyzingthreekeyfactors:thelikelihoodofthecollision,theseverityofthecollision,andtheconsequencesofthecollision.Thelikelihoodofthecollisiondependsonthetrafficdensityandthecollisionavoidancemeasurestakenbytheships.Theseverityofthecollisiondependsontherelativespeedandmassofthecollidingshipsandtheangleofcollision.Theconsequencesofthecollisiondependontheamountofdamagetotheships,theenvironmentalimpact,andtheeconomiclosses. Shipcollisionriskassessmentmethodologiesbasedonthedamagedvolumeoftheshipscanbedividedintotwocategories:deterministicandprobabilisticmethods.Thedeterministicmethodassumesthatthecollisionscenarioandthedamagetotheshipareknownwithcertainty.Thedeterministicmethodissuitableforassessingtheriskofspecificcollisionscenarios,butitislimitedinitsabilitytoaccountforuncertaintiesandvariationsinthecollisionscenarios.Theprobabilisticmethodconsiderstheuncertaintiesandvariationsinthecollisionscenariosandtheshipproperties.Theprobabilisticmethodcanprovideamorecomprehensiveandrealisticassessmentoftheshipcollisionrisk. Theshipcollisionriskassessmentbasedonthedamagedvolumeoftheshipscanbe