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基于前景理论的实时路径选择模型(英文).docx

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基于前景理论的实时路径选择模型(英文) Title:Real-timePathSelectionModelbasedonProspectTheory Abstract: Effectivepathselectionplaysacrucialroleinoptimizingnavigationsystemsandenhancinguserexperience.Thispaperproposesareal-timepathselectionmodelbasedonProspectTheory,whichtakesintoaccountdecision-makingunderuncertaintyandriskperception.Throughanalyticalmodelingandempiricalstudies,thismodelaimstoimprovetheaccuracyofpathrecommendationsandenhanceusersatisfaction. Introduction: Therapiddevelopmentofnavigationsystemsinrecentyearshasgreatlyfacilitatedtravelandnavigationforcountlessindividuals.However,existingnavigationsystemsoftenfailtoaccuratelyconsiderpersonalpreferences,riskperception,anddynamicenvironmentalfactorswhenrecommendingpaths.Toaddressthisissue,theproposedreal-timepathselectionmodelutilizesthetheoreticalframeworkofProspectTheorytocapturethedecision-makingprocessofindividualsunderuncertainty. ProspectTheory: ProspectTheory,developedbyDanielKahnemanandAmosTverskyin1979,revolutionizedtheunderstandingofhumandecision-makingunderriskanduncertainty.Itpostulatesthatindividualsevaluateoptionsbasedonpotentialgainsandlossesrelativetoareferencepoint.Moreover,ithighlightstheexistenceoflossaversion,meaninglossesareperceivedmoresignificantlythanequivalentgains. Real-timePathSelectionModel: Thereal-timepathselectionmodelintegratesProspectTheorywithcriticalfactorsincludingriskperception,timesensitivity,andtravelpreferences.Itconsistsofthreemaincomponents:prospectevaluation,pathchoice,andpathrecommendation. 1.ProspectEvaluation: Thisstageinvolvestheevaluationofpotentialgainsandlossesassociatedwithdifferentpathoptions.Utilizinghistoricaldataandreal-timeinformationsuchastrafficcongestion,accidents,weatherconditions,anduserpreferences,themodelcalculatestheexpectedutilityvaluesforeachpath.Theutilitycalculationincorporatesgainsandlosses,consideringthepotentialpsychologicalimpactofnegativeoutcomes. 2.PathChoice: Basedontheprospectevaluationresults,themodelidentifiesthepathwiththehighestexpectedutilityva