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SensitiveAnalysisandStatisticalStudyofNewTypesofRiskInvestmentProjectEvaluation.docx

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SensitiveAnalysisandStatisticalStudyofNewTypesofRiskInvestmentProjectEvaluation ZHANGLihuaMURuitianWANGJinhui HebeiUnionUniversity,P.R.China,063009 E-mail: Abstract:Inordertoovercomeexistingventurecapitalprojectevaluationmodelsshortcomingssuchasthedifficultyindeterminingrelevantcoefficients’valuesandthecoarseandsimpleriskmeasure,byusingfactorsanalysistheriskvalueofventurecapitalprojectevaluationwascalculatedinthispaper,whichopensanewwaytoventurecapitalprojectevaluation,simulationresultsshowthereasonabilityandusevalueofournewmodels. Keywords:ventureinvestment;sensitiveanalysisfactoranalysis;riskvalue;projectevaluation. 1 Introduction Venturecapitalcertainlyshouldbecalledanewbreedofcapitaloperationmodelbyintegratinginnovation,technology,finance,investment,managementandmarketinginawholebody.ThecharacteristicofVCliesinitshighriskandhighprofitability,andtheriskbecometheeternalthemeofventurecapital.Atthesametime,inordertoobtainfeasibleandefficientinvestmentplanVenturecapitalorganizationsusuallyhavemultipleriskprojectcanbechosenfrominpracticalrunning,butisnecessarytomakechoiceoftheseventurecapitalprojectsbyusingdecisionmethodduetothelimitationoftotalcapitalamountandhumanresource,therefore,discussingtheprojectevaluationofventurecapitalhasgreatimportanttheoreticalandpracticalsignificance. Itisnotdifficulttorecognizefourmethodsareappliedonthestudyofriskinvestmentprojectevaluation:(1)netpresentvalue,(2)desiredutility,(3)realoptionsand(4)analyticalhierarchyprocess.Butthesemeanshavemanydefectsintheapplication,forexample,theanalyticalhierarchyprocessmethodwhichisoftendiscussedbytheacademiccircles,firstlyhierarchicaldivisionissophisticated,secondlydecisionissubjectiveandthecalculationsisverycomplex.Thecurrentdecisionapproachrepresentedbythenetpresentvaluemethodignorestheirreversibilityandthevalueofoptiontodeferandthatis,theNPVoftenunderestimatethevalueofrealoptions.Inordertoovercomeexistingventurecapitalprojectevaluationmodelsshortcomingssuchasthedifficultyindeterminingrelevantco