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全球与我国地震活动序列的时间序列分析(英文) Seismicactivityisaphenomenonthathasintriguedmankindsinceancienttimes.EarthquakesaretheresultofasuddenreleaseofenergyintheEarth'scrust,andtheiroccurrenceandimpactareoftenunpredictable.Inrecentyears,therehasbeenanincreasinginterestinstudyingglobalandregionalseismicactivity,withtheaimofunderstandingtheunderlyingmechanismsandreducingtheriskofearthquake-relateddisasters.ThispaperaimstoanalyzethetimeseriesofseismicactivitygloballyandinChina,focusingonthetrendsandpatternsobservedinrecentyears. Globally,thespatialandtemporaldistributionofearthquakesishighlyuneven.Themajorityofearthquakesoccurattheboundariesoftectonicplates,wheretheplatesinteractandcreatestressthateventuallyleadstoarupture.Inparticular,thePacificRingofFireisknowntobeoneofthemostseismicallyactiveregionsintheworld,accountingforaround81%ofallearthquakesglobally.Inrecentyears,therehasbeenaslightincreaseinthenumberofearthquakesrecordedglobally.AccordingtodatafromtheUnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey(USGS),therewere17,088earthquakeswithamagnitudeof4.5orhigherin2017,comparedto16,590in2016. InChina,seismicactivityiscloselylinkedtothecountry'stectonicsettingandgeographiclocation.Thecountryislocatedinahighlyseismiczone,withmultipleactivefaultsystems.ThemostseismicallyactiveregionsaretheTibetanPlateau,theNorthChinaPlain,andtheSichuan-Yunnanregions.Inrecentyears,Chinahasexperiencedseveraldevastatingearthquakes,includingtheWenchuanearthquakein2008andtheYushuearthquakein2010.Theseeventshaveraisedpublicawarenessofearthquakeriskandtheimportanceofearthquakepreparedness.Ingeneral,therehasbeenadecreaseinthenumberofearthquakesinChinaoverthepastdecade.Forexample,thenumberofearthquakeswithamagnitudeof4.0orhigherdecreasedfrom13,522in2008to8,043in2017,accordingtodatafromtheChinaEarthquakeAdministration(CEA). TheanalysisoftimeseriesdataforseismicactivitygloballyandinChinarevealsseveraltrendsandpatterns.Firstly,thereisoverallstabilityintermsofseismicactivity.Althoughtherearevariationsinthenumberandintensityofearthqua