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基于实物期权定价方法的林业碳汇项目投资决策仿真研究.docx

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基于实物期权定价方法的林业碳汇项目投资决策仿真研究 Title:SimulationStudyonInvestmentDecisionofForestryCarbonSequestrationProjectsUsingRealOptionPricingMethod Introduction: Thegrowingconcernformitigatingclimatechangehasledtotheexplorationofvariousmethodstoreducegreenhousegasemissions.Forestrycarbonsequestrationprojects,whichinvolvemanagingforeststoabsorbandstorecarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere,havegainedsignificantattentionduetotheirpotentialtocontributetocarbonreduction.However,investingintheseprojectsinvolvesvariousuncertaintiesandrisks,makingitchallengingforinvestorstomakeinformeddecisions.Thispaperaimstoinvestigatetheinvestmentdecisionofforestrycarbonsequestrationprojectsusingasimulationapproachbasedontherealoptionpricingmethod. LiteratureReview: Theliteratureoncarbonpricingandcarbonfinanceprovidesafoundationforunderstandingthevaluationofcarbonsequestrationprojects.Realoptionpricing,avaluationmethodbasedonfinancialoptionstheory,hasbeenincreasinglyappliedinvaluingprojectswithuncertainpayoffsandflexibility.Severalstudieshaveutilizedrealoptionpricinginanalyzingforestrycarbonsequestrationprojects,emphasizingtheneedforconsideringthestochasticnatureofcarbonprices,projectlife,andpolicyuncertainty.Thesestudieshighlighttheimportanceofincorporatingtheflexibilitytooptimizedecision-makingunderchangingconditions. Methodology: Tosimulateinvestmentdecisionmakinginforestrycarbonsequestrationprojects,thisstudyproposesarealoptionpricingframework.TheBlack-Scholesoptionpricingmodelwillbeutilizedasafoundation,consideringfactorssuchascarbonpricevolatility,projectlife,andtheexercisetimeoftheoption.MonteCarlosimulationwillbeemployedtomodeltheuncertaintiesincarbonpriceandprojectparameters.Thesimulationwillbeconductedacrossmultiplescenarios,allowingforacomprehensiveevaluationofinvestmentoptionsandtheirassociatedrisks. ResultsandDiscussion: Inthissection,thesimulationresultswillbepresentedanddiscussed.Theanalysiswillfocusontheimpactofcarbonpricevolatility,projectlife,andthetimingofprojectimplementationoninvestmentde