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基于EC025配料的短时强降水概率预报产品及应用.docx

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基于EC025配料的短时强降水概率预报产品及应用 Title:Short-termHeavyRainfallProbabilityForecastingProductsandApplicationsbasedonEC025Ingredients Abstract: Short-termheavyrainfallprobabilityforecastingplaysacrucialroleindisasterprevention,waterresourcemanagement,andagriculturalplanning.ThispaperaimstodevelopandanalyzeaforecastingproductbasedontheEC025ingredientsmodeltopredictthelikelihoodofshort-termheavyrainfallevents.Furthermore,thepotentialapplicationsoftheforecastingproductinvarioussectorswillbediscussed. 1.Introduction Short-termheavyrainfalleventsareoftenassociatedwithsevereweatherconditionssuchasfloods,landslides,andflashfloods.Timelyandaccurateforecastsofheavyrainfalleventsareessentialforminimizingthepotentialrisksanddamagescausedbysuchevents.Theuseofglobalnumericalweatherpredictionmodels,suchasEC025,combinedwithadvancedstatisticaltechniques,canprovidevaluableinsightsintotheprobabilityofheavyrainfalloccurrence. 2.Methodology Themethodologyemployedinthisstudyconsistsoftwomainsteps:datapreprocessingandforecastingmodeldevelopment.First,therawEC025dataiscollectedandpreprocessedtoextractrelevantingredients,suchasatmospherichumidity,temperature,windvelocity,andpressure.Theseingredientsarethenusedasinputsfortheforecastingmodel.Variousstatisticaltechniques,includingmachinelearningalgorithmsandensemblemodels,canbeemployedtodeveloptheforecastingmodel. 3.ForecastingProductDevelopment Thedevelopmentoftheforecastingproductinvolvestrainingtheforecastingmodelusinghistoricaldata,verifyingitsperformanceusingindependentdatasets,andoptimizingthemodelparameters.Theoutputoftheforecastingmodelisaprobabilitymapillustratingthelikelihoodofheavyrainfalloccurrenceoveraspecifictimeperiod.Theproductcanbevisualizedusingmapsorgraphs,whichenableseasyinterpretationanddecision-making. 4.EvaluationandAnalysis Toevaluatetheperformanceofthedevelopedforecastingproduct,variousverificationmetricssuchasprobabilityofdetection,falsealarmrate,andcriticalsuccessindexcanbeemployed.Theanalysisofthesemetricsprovidesinsightsinto