基于马尔可夫链模型的公共自行车站点供需研究.docx

基于马尔可夫链模型的公共自行车站点供需研究
摘要
公共自行车共享系统在城市中越来越受欢迎，通过供应与需求之间的平衡，可提高城市的运营效率和生态可持续性。本论文基于马尔可夫链模型，提出一种公共自行车站点供需研究方法，用于评估站点供需之间的平衡和预测未来的供需趋势。通过实际公共自行车数据的案例分析，论文证明该方法可以提高站点运营效率，优化用户体验，并为城市公共自行车服务提供科学的决策支持。
关键词：公共自行车、马尔可夫链、供需平衡、站点运营
Introduction
Inrecentyears,publicbicyclesharingsystemshavebeenmoreandmorepopular.Thebalancebetweensupplyanddemandcanimproveurbanoperationalefficiencyandecologicalsustainability.Maintaininganequilibriumbetweensupplyanddemandforpublicbikestationsisessentialforoptimizingtheperformanceofthestationandimprovingtheuserexperience.Thispaperaimstostudythesupply-demandbalanceofpublicbikestationsandpredictfuturetrendsbyapplyingtheMarkovchainmodel.
Methods
TheMarkovchainmodelisusedtoanalyzethestation'shourlyusagedata.Thehourlyutilizationrateofeachstationisobtainedbydividingthenumberofbicyclesrentedbythenumberofdocksatthestationforeachhour.Thehourlyutilizationrateisthentransformedintoastate,andtheprobabilitytransitionmatrixiscalculatedbasedontheMarkovchain.Thematrixdescribestheprobabilityofatransitionfromonestatetoanotherinagiventimeperiod.
Results
Usingcasestudiesonpublicbike-sharingsystemsinseveralcities,wehaveverifiedtheeffectivenessoftheproposedmethod.Theanalysisshowedthatthesupply-demandbalanceofpublicbikestationsvariesgreatlyindifferenttimeperiods.Thetransitionprobabilitymatrixindicatesthatthehourlyutilizationofeachstationhasastrongmemoryeffectandisinfluencedbyitshistory.Basedonthepredictionoffutureutilizationdata,itispossibletoadjustthesupply-demandbalanceofthestation.
Conclusion
TheMarkovchainmodelusedinthispaperprovidesanewmethodforanalyzingthesupply-demandbalanceofpublicbikestations.Theresultsoftheanalysiscanprovidedecision-makerswithscientificsupportfortheefficientmanagementofpublicbike-sharingsystems.Itisconcludedthatthemethodcaneffectivelyoptimizetheperformanceofstationoperationsandprovidebetterservicestousers.
Keywords:publicbicycles,Markovchain,supply-demandbalance,stationoperation.