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应用变系数分位点回归模型分析经济因素对全球股市风险的影响.docx

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应用变系数分位点回归模型分析经济因素对全球股市风险的影响 Title:AnalysisoftheImpactofEconomicFactorsonGlobalStockMarketRiskusingQuantileRegressionModel Abstract: Thispaperaimstoinvestigatetheinfluenceofeconomicfactorsonglobalstockmarketriskusingaquantileregressionmodel.Theresearchfocusesonunderstandinghowvariouseconomicindicatorsaffectstockmarketriskatdifferentquantiles.Theanalysisprovidesvaluableinsightsintotherelationshipbetweentheeconomyandstockmarketvolatility,consideringthevaryingdegreesofmarketriskacrossdifferentquantiles.Thefindingsofthisstudyhavesignificantimplicationsforinvestors,policymakers,andfinancialanalystsinunderstandingandmanagingstockmarketrisk. 1.Introduction: Theglobalstockmarketissubjecttovariousfactorsthataffectitsrisklevels.Economicfactorsplayacrucialroleindeterminingstockmarketvolatility,astheydirectlyimpactthefinancialhealthofcompaniesandoverallmarketconditions.Thisstudyaimstoexaminetherelationshipbetweeneconomicfactorsandglobalstockmarketriskusingaquantileregressionmodel.Quantileregressionoffersamorecomprehensiveanalysisthantraditionalregressionmodelsbyanalyzinghoweconomicfactorsimpactstockmarketvolatilityatdifferentquantiles. 2.LiteratureReview: Theexistingliteratureontherelationshipbetweeneconomicfactorsandstockmarketriskprimarilyusestraditionalregressionmodels.However,thesemodelsneglectthepotentialheterogeneityacrossdifferentquantiles.Theapplicationofquantileregressionallowsforamorethoroughandaccurateunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweeneconomicfactorsandstockmarketrisk.Previousstudieshaveshownmixedresultsregardingtheimpactofeconomicfactorsonstockmarketrisk,highlightingtheneedforfurtherresearchusingquantileregression. 3.Methodology: Thestudyemploysaquantileregressionmodeltoanalyzetheimpactofeconomicfactorsonglobalstockmarketrisk.Thequantileregressionmodelallowsfortheexaminationoftheconditionaldistributionofstockmarketvolatilityatdifferentquantiles.TheeconomicfactorsconsideredinthisanalysismayincludeGDPgrowthrate,inflationrate,interestrates,exchangerates,andotherrele