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湖北常住人口与GDP的协整分析.docx

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湖北常住人口与GDP的协整分析 Title:CointegrationAnalysisofHubei'sPermanentResidentPopulationandGDP Abstract: Thisresearchpaperaimstoinvestigatethelong-termrelationshipbetweenHubei'spermanentresidentpopulationanditsGDPusingcointegrationanalysis.ThestudyutilizessecondarydatafromHubeiprovincefortheperiodfrom2000to2020.Themethodologyinvolvesexaminingthestationarityofthevariablesusingunitroottests,determiningthecointegrationrelationshipusingtheJohansencointegrationtest,andanalyzingthedynamicrelationshipthroughanerrorcorrectionmodel. 1.Introduction: Thepopulationandeconomicdevelopmentofaregionareintricatelylinked.Understandingtherelationshipbetweenpopulationdynamicsandeconomicgrowthisessentialforpolicymakersandresearchersalike.HubeiprovinceinChinaprovidesaninterestingcasetostudythisrelationshipduetoitsrapideconomicgrowthandurbanizationinrecentdecades.Thispaperaimstoexplorethelong-termassociationbetweenHubei'spermanentresidentpopulationanditsGDP. 2.LiteratureReview: Severalstudieshaveexaminedtherelationshipbetweenpopulationandeconomicgrowthattheregionallevel.Somestudiessuggestthatpopulationgrowthstimulateseconomicdevelopmentthroughincreasedlaborsupplyandconsumptiondemand.Othersarguethateconomicgrowthleadstochangesinpopulationcompositionandsize.However,fewstudieshavespecificallyfocusedonHubeiprovince. 3.Methodology: ToexaminethecointegrationrelationshipbetweenHubei'spermanentresidentpopulationandGDP,thefollowingstepswillbetaken: 3.1UnitRootTests:ThefirststepistotestthestationarityofthevariablesusingappropriateunitroottestssuchastheAugmentedDickey-Fuller(ADF)orPhillips-Perron(PP)test.Non-stationaryvariablesmustbedifferencedtoachievestationarity. 3.2CointegrationAnalysis:TheJohansencointegrationtestwillbeemployedtodeterminethepresenceofalong-termrelationshipbetweenthevariables.Thistestallowsfortheestimationofthecointegratingvectorsandthenumberofcointegratingequations. 3.3ErrorCorrectionModel(ECM):TheECMwillbeusedtoinvestigatethedynamicrelationshipbetweenthepermanentresidentpopulationandGD