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利率影响中美股市的实证研究.docx

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利率影响中美股市的实证研究 Title:TheImpactofInterestRatesontheStockMarketsinChinaandtheUnitedStates:AnEmpiricalStudy Introduction: Interestrates,asdeterminedbythecentralbanksofrespectivecountries,arekeydeterminantsofeconomicgrowth,investmentactivities,andassetprices.ThispaperaimstoanalyzetheimpactofinterestratesonstockmarketsinbothChinaandtheUnitedStatesthroughanempiricalstudy.Byunderstandingtherelationshipbetweeninterestratesandstockmarketperformance,investorsandpolicymakerscanmakemoreinformeddecisionsregardinginvestmentstrategiesandmonetarypolicies,respectively. Section1:LiteratureReview 1.1TheoreticalFramework: a.Thewealtheffect:Lowerinterestratesreduceborrowingcostsandpromoteinvestmentactivities,increasingstockmarketreturns. b.Thediscountrateeffect:Higherinterestratesincreasethediscountrate,leadingtolowerpresentvaluesoffuturecashflows,whichmaynegativelyimpactstockprices. c.Theinflationeffect:Higherinterestratescanbeindicativeofhigherinflation,whichmayreducefutureearningsandstockmarketperformance. 1.2PreviousEmpiricalStudies: a.Wei(2020)foundanegativerelationshipbetweeninterestratesandthestockmarketintheUnitedStates,emphasizingtheinfluenceofthediscountrateeffect. b.Chen(2019)demonstratedapositiverelationshipbetweeninterestratesandthestockmarketinChina,supportingthewealtheffecthypothesis. c.Ji(2018)revealedamixedrelationshipbetweeninterestratesandstockmarketsinbothChinaandtheUnitedStates,highlightingtheimportanceofconsideringotherfactors. Section2:Methodology 2.1DataCollection: a.ThestudywillutilizemonthlydatafromJanuary2015toDecember2020forbothChinaandtheUnitedStates. b.Stockmarketindices,suchastheS&P500fortheUSandtheShanghaiCompositeIndexforChina,willbeusedasthedependentvariables. c.Theinterestrateswillbecollectedfromthecentralbanksofbothcountries. 2.2EmpiricalModel: a.Multipleregressionanalysiswillbeconductedtoexaminetherelationshipbetweeninterestratesandstockmarketindices. b.Controlvariables,suchasGDPgrowthrate,inflationrate,andexchangerates,willbeincludedtoaccountforother