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人民币汇率与分行业股价关系的研究.docx

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人民币汇率与分行业股价关系的研究 摘要 本文通过对人民币汇率与不同行业股票的相关性进行研究，发现了人民币汇率与股价具有不同程度的相关性。其中，汇率对原材料、能源和银行业股价的影响最为显著，而对科技、医药和消费品等行业的影响相对较小。 Abstract ThispaperexploresthecorrelationbetweenRMBexchangerateandstockpricesindifferentindustries.WefoundthatthecorrelationbetweenRMBexchangerateandstockpricesvariedindifferentindustries.Specifically,RMBexchangeratehasthemostsignificantimpactonthestockpricesofrawmaterials,energyandbankingindustries,andtheimpactontechnology,healthcare,andconsumergoodsindustriesisrelativelysmall. Introduction Withtheglobalizationoftheeconomy,theexchangeratehasbecomeanimportantfactorindeterminingthecompetitivenessofnationalindustries.InthecaseofChina,theRMBexchangeratehasbeenahottopicformanyyears,andithasattractedmuchattentionfromscholars,policymakers,andinvestors.Inrecentyears,withthegradualopeningupoftheChinesecapitalmarket,thecorrelationbetweenRMBexchangerateandstockpriceshasarousedmoreandmoreinterestsofinvestors. LiteratureReview TherehavebeenmanystudiesontherelationshipbetweenRMBexchangerateandstockpricesinChina.Forexample,Liangetal.(2016)foundthatRMBexchangeratehasasignificantimpactonthestockpricesofexportingindustriessuchasmachineryandelectronics.Zhangetal.(2015)arguedthattheimpactofRMBexchangerateonthestockpricesofdifferentindustriesisnotconsistent,anditisnecessarytoanalyzetheimpactonindividualindustriesseparately. Methodology ThestudyusesthemonthlydataofRMBexchangerateandstockpricesofdifferentindustriesfromJanuary2010toDecember2020.ThecorrelationbetweenRMBexchangerateandstockpricesisanalyzedusingtheregressionmodel. Results TheresultsshowthatRMBexchangeratehasasignificantimpactonthestockpricesofdifferentindustries,buttheimpactisnotconsistent.Specifically,theimpactonthestockpricesofrawmaterials,energy,andbankingindustriesisthemostsignificant.Theimpactonthestockpricesoftechnology,healthcare,andconsumergoodsindustriesisrelativelysmall.TheregressionanalysisshowsthattheR-squaredvalueofrawmaterials,energy,andbankingindustriesishigherthanthatoftechnology,healthcare,andc