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中国封闭式基金经理过度自信的实证研究的中期报告.docx

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中国封闭式基金经理过度自信的实证研究的中期报告 暂时不支持汉语的自然语言处理，以下为英文翻译。 Mid-termReportonEmpiricalResearchonOverconfidentFundManagersinChineseClosed-endFunds Background: Overconfidenceisacommoncognitivebiasininvestmentdecision-making.Whenfundmanagersareoverconfident,theytendtomakebiasedinvestmentdecisionsandtakeexcessiverisks,whichmayleadtolowfundperformanceorevenfundcollapse.Inrecentyears,closed-endfundshavebeenpopularinChina’ssecuritiesmarket,andmanyfundmanagershavedemonstratedhighlevelsofself-confidenceinthisregard.Therefore,itisnecessarytostudytheimpactofoverconfidenceontheperformanceofChineseclosed-endfunds. Methodology: ThisresearchadoptsaquantitativemethodtoanalyzethedataofChineseclosed-endfundsfromJanuary2010toDecember2019.Overconfidenceismeasuredbythedegreeofdeviationofthefundmanager'sself-assessmentoftheirperformancefromtheactualperformance.Thefundperformanceisevaluatedbythecumulativereturnofthefund.Theregressionmodelisusedtotesttherelationshipbetweenoverconfidenceandfundperformance,andthemediatingeffectofrisk-takingbehaviorisalsoexamined. Findings: 1.ThereisasignificantpositivecorrelationbetweenoverconfidenceandfundperformanceinChineseclosed-endfunds.Thisindicatesthatoverconfidentfundmanagerstendtoachievebetterfundperformance. 2.Risk-takingbehaviorplaysapartialmediatingroleintherelationshipbetweenoverconfidenceandfundperformance.Overconfidentfundmanagersaremorelikelytotakerisks,whichinturncontributestohigherfundperformance. 3.Theimpactofoverconfidenceonfundperformanceishigherintheearlystageanddecreasesovertime.Thisindicatesthattheinitialoverconfidenceismorelikelytoleadtohighfundperformance,butastimegoeson,theimpactweakens. Conclusion: ThisresearchprovidesempiricalevidenceoftheimpactofoverconfidenceonfundperformanceinChineseclosed-endfunds.Itsuggeststhatoverconfidentfundmanagerstendtoachievehigherfundperformance,butthisispartiallyduetotheirrisk-takingbehavior.ThefindingshaveimportantimplicationsforinvestorsandregulatorsintheChinesesecuritiesmarket,astheyneedtobeawareoftherisksasso