我国汽车消费市场区域差异变化趋势及影响因素省际差异.pdf

我国汽车消费市场区域差异变化趋势及影响因素省际差异巫细波葛志专[摘要]从东北、华东、华中、华北、华南、西北及西南七个区域视角，基于Theil指数分析了我国2002—2018年汽车消费市场的总体及区域差异变化趋势，采用面板数据分位数模型实证分析了汽车销量影响因素。研究表明：汽车消费市场总体发展较快，新车销量年均增速达13.76%;汽车销量的绝对差异呈现扩大趋势，而相对差异呈现波浪式下降趋势;总体差异主要来自组内差异，组内差异贡献率常年保持在60%以上;面板数据分位数回归模型显示，汽车销量的影响因素在不同分位点的估计系数存在明显差异，居民消费水平估计系数随分数点提高而增加，汽车市场刺激政策估计系数随分位点提高呈现下降趋势，汽车产量和金融发展水平对汽车销量的影响类似，估计系数在较低和较高分位数点对汽车销量的影响都不显著。[关键词]汽车市场;区域差异;Theil指数;面板数据分位数回归模型[中图分类号]F764[文獻标识码]A[文章编号]2095-3283（2020）06-0059-05RegionalDifferenceTrendsandInfluencingFactorsofRegionalDifferencesinChina"sAutomobileConsumerMarketWuXiboGeZhizhuan（GuangzhouAcademyofSocialSciences，GuangzhouGuangdong510410）Abstract：BasedontheTheilindexfromtheperspectivesofsevenregionsinNortheastChina，EastChina，CentralChina，NorthChina，SouthChina，NorthwestChinaandSouthwestChina，thispaperanalyzestheoverallandregionalvariationtrendsofautomobileconsumermarketinChinafrom2002to2018.AnempiricalanalysisusingpaneldataquantilemodelsInfluencingfactorsofcarsales.Theresearchshowsthattheoverallautomotiveconsumermarketisdevelopingrapidly，withtheaverageannualgrowthrateofnewcarsalesreaching13.76%;theabsolutedifferenceincarsalesisexpanding，whiletherelativedifferenceisdeclining;theoveralldifferenceismainlyfromwithin-groupdifferences，andwithin-groupdifferencesThecontributionratehasremainedabove60%allyearround;thepaneldataquantileregressionmodelshowsthatthereareobviousdifferencesintheestimatedcoefficientsofinfluencingfactorsonautomobilesalesatdifferentquantiles，andtheestimatedcoefficientofhouseholdconsumptionlevelsincreaseswiththeincreaseofthegradingpoints，andtheautomobilemarketTheestimatedcoefficientofthestimuluspolicyshowedadownwardtrendwiththeincreaseofthequantile.Theimpactofautomobileproductionandfinancialdevelopmentlevelonautomobilesaleswassimilar.Theimpactoftheestimatedcoefficientonautomobilesalesatlowerandhigherquantileswasnotsignificant.KeyWords：AutomobileMarket;RegionalDifferences;TheilIndex;QuantileRegressionModelforPanelData一、引言当前，我国汽车市场已经结束了连续近30年正向增长的趋势并进入低速甚至负增长的新阶段，国内省际汽车消费市场已出现了非常明显