神华煤制烯烃展望.pdf

第十届洁净煤论坛2013中国煤制烯烃产业的发展与展望TheDevelopmentSituationandProspectsofCoaltoOlefin(CTO)IndustryinChina岳国YUEGuo中国神华煤制油化工有限公司ChinaShenhuaCoaltoLiquidandChemicalCo.,Ltd.June2013报告提纲Outline一、中国发展煤制烯烃符合国情、意义重大TheDevelopmentofCTOIndustryisAccordingwithChineseNationalConditionandHavingImportantSignificance二、烯烃产品市场空间广阔BroadMarketofOlefinProducts三、煤制烯烃项目运行及发展情况MatureandReliableCTOTechnology四、中国发展煤制烯烃经济上有竞争力EconomicAdvantageofChineseCTOindustry五、发展煤制烯烃产业面临机遇与挑战OpportunitiesandChallengesofCTOindustry六、认识和体会ExperienceandIdeas第十届洁净煤论坛2013一、中国发展煤制烯烃符合国情、意义重大TheDevelopmentofCTOIndustryisaccordingwithChineseNationalConditionandHavinganImportantSignificance中国能源生产与消耗情况SituationofEnergyProductionandConsumptioninChina中国已成为能源生产和消费大国Chinahasbecomethelargeenergyproducerandconsumerintheworld.2012年能源生产与消费Energyproductionandconsumption.能源生产31.8亿吨（标煤）Energyproduction:3.18billiontons.能源消费34.8亿吨（标煤）Energyconsumption:3.48billiontons.※中国能源供需快速增长、结构以煤为主RapidGrowthofEnergySupplyandDemand,StructureDominatedbyCoal.40.00Energy能源消费总量ConsumptionHydropower35.00Energy能源生产总量Production30.00TotalEnergyConsumption:中国占世界能源消费总量的份额，NaturalGas325milliontstandardcoal25.00由2000年的9.0%提高到2010年的20.0020.8%。CrudeOil15.00亿吨标煤10.005.000.00Coal1980198519901995200020052010年份中国能源生产和消费总量EnergyConsumptionStructureofChinain2010中国的石油消费高度对外依赖DependenceonForeignofPetroleumConsumption5.0石油生产量石油消费量石油进口量ProductionConsumptionImport4.01billiont)0.3.02.01.0产量与消费量（亿t）0.0年份ProductionandConsumption(Year19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012-1.0中国石油生产与消费总量年份TotalOilProduction石油生产与消费总量andConsumption中国的石油消费高度对外依赖DependenceonForeignofPetroleumConsumption进口石油成本升高TheRisingCostofImportedOil近年来，国际石油价格持续攀升并高位振荡，增加中国石油进口的成本。Inrecentyears,theinternationaloilpricescontinuetoclimbandfluctuateinhigh-level.近年来国际原油价格走势及预测theTrendandForecastofInternationalCrudeOilPricedollars/barrel中国的石油消费高度对外依赖DependenceonForeignofPetroleumConsumption经济快速发展,单位GDP耗能高,能源需求增长迅速。尤其是石油消费和进口逐年快速增长。RapideconomicgrowthandhighunitGD