洱海流域农业面源污染与水环境变化的关联分析.pdf

洱海流域农业面源污染与水环境变化的关联分析卢中辉;余斌;张辉;杨振【摘要】随着点源污染得到有效控制与治理,农业面源污染已成为湖泊水环境污染的主要来源.该文利用等标污染负荷法和相关统计、调查数据,计算了2006年～2014年洱海流域农业面源污染负荷,在此基础上,运用灰色关联分析方法,测度了农业面源污染与洱海水环境变化的关联性.研究揭示:1)2014年流域农业污染的总排放量为8303.63t,折算成等标排放量COD、TN和TP分别为325.85、1371.29和420.10m3/a,表明TN为污染超标的主要影响因子;2)畜禽养殖关联度为0.71,种植业关联度为0.63,表明农业发展整体对洱海水环境影响较大,其中,大蒜、水稻、牛、猪的关联度分别为0.70、0.69、0.74、0.74,贡献率分别为9.35％、10.90％、35.09％、13.19％;3)从空间分布看,海北片区的三营镇、右所镇、茈碧湖镇为流域重点污染源区,且流域主要污染物的增减变化具有一定的空间非均衡性.据此,探讨了未来洱海流域基于水环境保护的农业发展策略.%Alongwiththeeffectivecontrolofpointsourcepollution,agriculturalnonpointsourcepollutionhasbecomethemainpollutionsourceoflakewaterenvironment.Basedontheequivalentstandardpollutionloadmethodandtherelevantsurveydata,thispapercalculatesdischargesofagriculturalnon-pointsourcepollutionintheErhaiLakewatershedduring2006～2014,andthen,usingthegreycorrelationanalysismethod,correlationsarestudiedbetweenagriculturalnon-pointsourcepollutionandwaterenvironmentintheErhaiLakewatershed.Theresearchresultsshowthat:firstly,thetotaldischargesofagriculturalnon-pointsourcepollutionare8303.63t,amounttoequivalentstandarddischargesofCOD,TNandTPas325.85,1371.29,and420.10m3/a,respectively,whichindicatesthatTNisthemaininfluencefactorforpollution;secondly,thecorrelationbetweenlivestockandwaterenvironmentis0.71,andthecorrelationbetweencropfarmingandwaterenvironmentis0.63,whichshowthattheinfluenceofagriculturaldevelopmentisrelativelysignificantforwaterenvironment.Indetail,thecorrelationsofgarlic,rice,cattleandpigare0.70,0.69,0.74,0.69,andthecontributionratesare10.90％,9.35％,35.09％,and13.19％,respectively;thirdly,fromtheperspectiveofspatialdistribution,thenorthareaarekeypollutionsourceareas,suchasSanyingtown,Yousuotown,ZiBilaketown,besides,thevarianceofnonpointsourcepollutionwasnon-balanced.Accordingtotheabovedata,thefutureagriculturaldevelopmentofErhaiLakewatershedisdiscussedinviewofwaterenvironmentprotectionstrategy.【期刊名称】《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》【年(卷),期】2017(051)002【总页数】9页(P215-223)【关键词】农业面源污染;水环境;等标污染负荷;灰色关联分析;洱海流域【作者】卢中辉;余斌;张辉;杨振【作者单位】华中师范大学城市与环境科学