基于时间序列模型的短时交通流预测11.doc

目录TOC\o"1-3"\h\z\uHYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001487"摘要PAGEREF_Toc420001487\hIIHYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001488"AbstractPAGEREF_Toc420001488\hIIIHYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001489"前言PAGEREF_Toc420001489\h1HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001490"第一章绪论PAGEREF_Toc420001490\h1HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001491"1.1研究背景及意义PAGEREF_Toc420001491\h1HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001492"1.2短时交通流预测国内外研究现状PAGEREF_Toc420001492\h2HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001493"第二章时间序列预测模型相关理论PAGEREF_Toc420001493\h2HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001494"2.1时间序列模型预测概述PAGEREF_Toc420001494\h2HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001495"2.2时间序列模型预测原理PAGEREF_Toc420001495\h3HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001496"2.3时间序列预测算法PAGEREF_Toc420001496\h4HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001497"第三章短时交通流预测PAGEREF_Toc420001497\h9HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001498"3.1短时交通流预测概述PAGEREF_Toc420001498\h9HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001499"3.2短时交通流预测的评价指标PAGEREF_Toc420001499\h9HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001500"3.3交通流数据的选择PAGEREF_Toc420001500\h10HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001501"3.4数据性质PAGEREF_Toc420001501\h11HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001502"第四章运用时间序列模型进行短时交通流预测PAGEREF_Toc420001502\h11HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001503"4.1运用三种时间序列算法进行短时交通流预测PAGEREF_Toc420001503\h11HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001504"4.1.1趋势拟合法PAGEREF_Toc420001504\h11HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001505"4.1.2平滑法PAGEREF_Toc420001505\h16HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001506"4.1.3ARIMA方法PAGEREF_Toc420001506\h19HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001507"4.2预测结果对比分析PAGEREF_Toc420001507\h21HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001508"4.2.1对一次指数平滑法进行拟合PAGEREF_Toc420001508\h22HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001509"第五章结束语PAGEREF_Toc420001509\h23HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001510"5.1论文的优点PAGEREF_Toc420001510\h23HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001511"5.2论文的不足PAGEREF_Toc420001511\h23HYPERLINK\l"_Toc420001512"参考