我国外汇储备的规模适度性分析.docx

摘要PAGE-11-我国外汇储备的规模适度性分析摘要外汇储备能够用来调节国际收支、干预外汇市场，对于任何一个国家都是必不可少的。持有外汇储备能够带来收益，但也是有成本的，一国应保持合适的外汇储备量。目前，我国的外汇储备是超额的，巨额的外汇储备主要由经常项目顺差、资本和金融项目顺差以及大量的外商直接投资造成。通过比例分析法分析表明，我国的外汇储备规模在近十年来一直是超额的，而在此之前则是一个由不足逐渐走向适度的过程。通过用修正的阿格沃尔模型进行分析，算出了我国历年合理的外汇储备规模的范围，得出了近年来我国外汇储备超额的额度。转变经济增长方式、改变结售汇制度，加强黄金储备、物资储备是保持我国适度外汇储备规模的重要举措。关键词：外汇储备；比例分析法；阿格沃尔模型；适度规模；AbstractThemoderatescaleanalysisofChina’sforeignexchangereservesAbstractForeignexchangereservescanbeusedtoadjustthebalanceofinternationalpayments,tointerventiontheforeignexchangemarketandareessentialforanycountry.Holdingforeignexchangereservescanbringsomebenefitsandcosttous,therefore,thestateshouldmaintainanappropriateforeignexchangereserves.Atpresent,China'sforeignexchangereservesareexcess,anditiscausedbythesurplusofCurrent-account,thesurplusofcapitalandfinancialaccountandtheinflowsoflargeforeigndirectinvestment.ThetraditionalanalysisofforeignexchangereservesareratioanalysismethodsandtheAgarwalmodel,Byratioanalysiswecanknowthatourforeignexchangereservesareexcessinthepastdecade,andbeforethat,itexperienceaperiodfromlesstomoderatescale.ByusingthemodifiedAgarwalmodeltodoananalysis,IcalculateareasonablerangeofthesizeofChina'sforeignexchangereservesinthepreviousyearsandcometoaconclusionthatourforeignexchangereservesareexcessinrecentyearsandIcanknowthespecificexcessdata.Basedonthis,Iputforwardsomecountermeasuresandsuggestionstomaintainasuitablereserve:forexampletochangethepatternofeconomicgrowth,changesthesystemofforeignexchangesettlement,toincreasethegoldreserveandmaterialreserves.Keyword:foreignexchangereserves；ratioanalysismethods；Agarwalmodel；moderatescale；目录目录摘要ⅠAbstractⅡ第一章导论前言11.1选题背景及研究意义11.2文献综述11.2.1国外相关研究及文献综述11.2.2国内相关研究及文献综述2研究的主要内容第二章我国