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第二松花江流域1956—2006年降水量时空变化特征分析.docx

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第二松花江流域1956—2006年降水量时空变化特征分析 摘要 本文利用Mann-Kendall（MK）趋势检验法和回归分析法，研究了中国东北地区第二松花江流域1956-2006年的降水量时空变化特征。结果表明：第二松花江流域的年降水量具有显著的年代际变化趋势和空间分异特征；流域内不同站点的降水量均呈显著的空间异质性，且东北部和西南部降水量较多，中部和东南部降水量较少。此外，年平均降水量主要受海气耦合作用、东亚夏季风和西太平洋暖池变化等控制。 关键词：Mann-Kendall趋势检验法；回归分析法；第二松花江流域；降水量；时空变化 Abstract Inthisstudy,thespatial-temporalcharacteristicsofprecipitationintheSecondSonghuaRiverBasinofnortheasternChinawereanalyzedusingMann-Kendalltrendtestandregressionanalysismethodsfrom1956to2006.Theresultsshowedsignificantdecadalvariationsandspatialheterogeneityinprecipitationoverthebasin.Precipitationatdifferentstationswithinthebasinshowedsignificantspatialheterogeneity,withmoreprecipitationinthenortheastandsouthwest,andlessinthecentralandsoutheast.Furthermore,annualaverageprecipitationwasmainlycontrolledbysea-aircoupling,EastAsiansummermonsoon,andchangesintheWesternPacificwarmpool. Keywords:Mann-Kendalltrendtest;regressionanalysis;SecondSonghuaRiverBasin;precipitation;spatial-temporalvariation Introduction Precipitationisacriticalfactoraffectingregionalclimateandhydrologicalprocesses.Itplaysavitalroleinregionalsocialandeconomicdevelopment,ecologicalenvironment,andwaterresourcessecurity.TheSecondSonghuaRiverBasinisanessentialriverbasininnortheasternChina,coveringanareaofapproximately30,000squarekilometers.ItisatypicalsourceregionoftheSonghuaRiverandisanessentialareaforagriculturalproductionandindustrialdevelopment.Inrecentyears,theclimateoftheSecondSonghuaRiverBasinhasundergonesignificantchangesduetoglobalwarmingandhumanactivities,whichhasledtomorefrequentextremeweathereventssuchasdroughtsandfloods.Therefore,itiscrucialtostudythespatial-temporalcharacteristicsandinfluencingfactorsofprecipitationintheSecondSonghuaRiverBasintoformulaterationalwaterresourceutilizationpoliciesanddisasterpreventionandmitigationstrategies. Methods 1.Studyarea TheSecondSonghuaRiverBasinisanessentialregioninnortheastChina.ItincludespartsofHeilongjiangProvince,JilinProvince,andInnerMongoliaAutonomousRegion.Thetotalareaofthe