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河西走廊东部大雾气候特征及预报方法研究(英文).docx

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河西走廊东部大雾气候特征及预报方法研究(英文) ResearchonClimaticCharacteristicsandForecastingMethodsofHeavyFogintheEasternHexiCorridor Abstract： TheHexiCorridorisanimportanteconomicandtransportationhubinthenorthwestregionofChina.TheeasternpartoftheHexiCorridorischaracterizedbyheavyfog,whichseriouslyaffectstrafficsafetyandeconomicdevelopment.Therefore,itisofgreatpracticalsignificancetostudytheclimaticcharacteristicsandforecastingmethodsofheavyfoginthisarea.BasedonthemeteorologicaldataoftheeasternHexiCorridorfrom1960to2019,thisstudyanalyzedthetemporalandspatialdistributioncharacteristicsofheavyfog,exploredtheinfluencingfactors,andproposedacorrespondingforecastingmethodtoprovidereliablescientificsupportforregionaleconomicdevelopmentandtrafficsafety. Keywords:EasternHexiCorridor,heavyfog,climaticcharacteristics,forecastingmethods Introduction: TheHexiCorridorisanimportantpassageforancientcivilizationsinEastAsiatocommunicatewiththeWesternRegionsandCentralAsia.Itisalsoastrategiclocationforthedevelopmentofmoderntransportationandeconomy.Asanaturalhubfortheconvergenceofmoistairfromthesoutheastanddryairfromthenorthwest,theHexiCorridorispronetoheavyfog,especiallyintheeasternpartofthecorridor,whichhasavastplainandrelativelyhighairhumidity.Heavyfoghascausedseriousroadtrafficaccidentsandeconomiclossesinthisarea.Therefore,itisnecessarytoconductacomprehensivestudyontheclimaticcharacteristicsandforecastingmethodsofheavyfoginthisregion. 1.Dataandmethods ThemeteorologicaldatausedinthisstudywereobtainedfromtheNationalMeteorologicalInformationCenterdatabasefrom1960to2019.Theheavyfogdaywasdefinedasthedailyvisibilitylessthan200meters.Theclimaticcharacteristicsofheavyfogwereanalyzedbystatisticalmethodssuchasfrequencyanalysis,trendanalysis,correlationanalysisandprincipalcomponentanalysis.Theinfluencingfactorsofheavyfogwereanalyzedbycorrelationanalysisandregressionanalysis.Basedontheaboveanalysis,ahybridforecastingmodelcombiningARIMAandBPneuralnetworkwasestablished. 2.Spatialandtemporaldistributioncharacteristics