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基于决策树的农业气象灾害等级预测模型(英文).docx

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基于决策树的农业气象灾害等级预测模型(英文) Title:PredictiveModelofAgriculturalMeteorologicalDisasterLevelBasedonDecisionTree Abstract: Agriculturalmeteorologicaldisastershaveasignificantimpactoncropproductionandagriculturaleconomies.Predictionofdisasterlevelsisessentialforeffectiveriskmanagement.Inrecentyears,decisiontree-basedpredictivemodelshavebeenwidelyusedinvariousfields,includingagriculturalmeteorologicaldisasterprediction.Thisstudydevelopsadecisiontree-basedpredictivemodelforagriculturalmeteorologicaldisasterlevelprediction.Themodelistrainedandtestedusingadatasetcomprisingmeteorologicalandhistoricalagriculturaldisasterdata.Theresultsshowthatthedecisiontree-basedpredictivemodelprovidesaccurateandreliablepredictionsofagriculturalmeteorologicaldisasterlevels. Introduction: Agriculturalmeteorologicaldisasterssuchasdroughts,floods,frosts,andhailstormshaveasignificantimpactoncropproduction,agriculturaleconomies,andrurallivelihoods.Thepredictionofagriculturalmeteorologicaldisasterlevelsisessentialforeffectiveriskmanagementandmitigation.Accurateandtimelypredictionofdisasterlevelsenablesfarmersandpolicymakerstotakeappropriatemeasurestopreventandmitigatetheimpactofagriculturalmeteorologicaldisasters. Theuseofdecisiontree-basedpredictivemodelshasgainedwidespreadacceptanceinvariousfields,includingagriculturalmeteorologicaldisasterprediction.Decisiontreealgorithmsofferasimpleandintuitivewayofpredictingoutcomesbasedonasetofinputvariables.Thealgorithmpartitionstheinputdatasetintosmallersubsetsbasedonthevaluesofaselectedvariable.Thesubsetsarerecursivelysplitintosmallersubsetsuntilastoppingcriterionismet. Previousstudieshavemadesignificantprogressinthepredictionofagriculturalmeteorologicaldisastersusingdecisiontreealgorithms.However,moststudieshavefocusedonthepredictionofspecifictypesofdisastersandhavenotconsideredtheholisticpredictionofdisasterlevels.Therefore,thisstudyaimstodevelopadecisiontree-basedpredictivemodelfortheholisticpredictionofagriculturalmeteorologicaldisasterlevels. Materialsand