中信证券-通信行业XXXX年下半年投资策略-100630.pdf

2010ᑈ6᳜30᮹
ⷨお᡹ਞg㸠Ϯⷨおg䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ

䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ2010ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹

˅䖤㧹˖Ёᗻ˄㓈ᣕֵ⬉
˅ᥬ䞥⬉ֵ᳡ࡵ๲ؐ᳡ࡵ˖ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ˄㓈ᣕ
˅䗮ֵ䆒໛˖ᔎѢ໻Ꮦ˄㓈ᣕ

ᡩ䌘㽕⚍Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼

3Gᯊҷ໻䗮ֵ᳡ࡵԧ㋏ℷ೼ᔶ៤DŽ3Gᯊҷᮄⱘ䗮ֵ᳡ࡵԧ㋏ℷ೼ᓎゟˈᮄᓴ݉5
ԧ㋏䴶৥໮䞡Ϯࡵ˗᳡ࡵӋؐᬒ໻ᑊᏆϡϧሲѢ⬉ֵ䖤㧹ଚDŽ៥Ӏᇚᮄ᳡ࡵ⬉䆱˖010-84588511
ԧ㋏ϟⱘӋؐ߯䗴ߦߚࠄ๲ؐ᳡ࡵǃ㒜ッ᳡ࡵǃ㔥㒰᳡ࡵ੠෎⸔᳡ࡵಯϾ䚼䚂ӊ˖[e-mail]
৥Ѣࠡϝ䚼ߚDŽᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010200010061أߚЁˈᵘ៤໻䗮ֵ᳡ࡵԧ㋏ˈ೼ᡩ䌘ӋؐϞ៥Ӏ᳈
5
ⳟད໻䗮ֵ᳡ࡵⱘϸϾḍᴀॳ಴DŽϔᰃ᳡ࡵ䴶৥ᑲ໻ⱘ⬉ֵ⫼᠋㕸ԧˈᘏ⫼ᅿ֞⍯
103G
Ꮖ䍙䖛ғᑊҡ೼๲䭓DŽѠᰃᏺᴹњ䲒ҹᛇ䈵ⱘᑨ⫼߯ᮄ੠Ӌؐ๲⬉䆱˖010-84588159᠋
䭓⚍ˈϨ೑ݙ3Gᑨ⫼⦃๗Ꮖ䍟៤❳ˈᮄ๲⫼᠋Ё3G⫼᠋ऴ↨Ꮖ䖒26%DŽ䚂ӊ˖[e-mail]
ձᠬᑲ໻ⱘ⫼᠋㕸੠䲒ҹ⒵䎇ⱘ䳔∖ৃҹ䇈䗮ֵ᳡ࡵᮍ݈᳾㡒DŽᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010210060002
⫼๲ؐ᳡ࡵЁᑇৄᦤկଚ⏅݋┰࡯DŽ݊೼ѻϮЁⱘഄԡ᳈催ˈᑊϨⳈ᥹䴶ᇍ5
᠋ˈৃখϢ䖤㧹ଚⱘᬊܹߚ៤DŽ៥Ӏ䅸Ў⾥໻䆃亲ⱘ䇁䷇᧰㋶ᑇৄࠡ᱃ᑓ䯨ˈⳌᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄
ҷ㸼⿏ࡼ⦃๗ϟ᳾ᴹ᧰㋶ϮࡵⱘЏ⌕থሩ䍟࢓ПϔˈϨᑇৄ᳝䕗ᔎⱘᥦҪЁᷛ300䗮ֵ
20
ᗻ˗ℸ໪ˈ԰ЎЁ⿏ࡼ亲ֵঞݰֵ䗮ᑇৄⱘ⼲Ꮂ⋄ኇǃ᠟ᴎ⌕ၦԧᑇৄⱘ࣫10
㒀䗮ֵǃ᠟ᴎࡼ⓿੠ᬃҬᑇৄⱘᢧ㓈ֵᙃѺ᳝┰࡯DŽ0
-10
5ᮄᑨ⫼᳡ࡵᏺᴹ㒜ッछ㑻ᤶҷ䞡໻ᴎ䘛DŽ3G䖕⿏↣ᑈᇚѻ⫳गғ㑻ⱘ㒜ッ-20
᠟ᴎᬃҬ䖭ḋⱘᮄ㒜ッᑨ⫼ѻ⫳ˈⳟདᦤկ⹀ӊ䜡-30ڣ᳓ᤶᏖഎˈᑊϨӮԈ䱣
100104100203100312100414100517100621
༫᳡ࡵⱘᘦᅱǃ໻૤ǃϰֵDŽ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳
㔥㒰ᄬ䞣催๲ঞ⬉ֵ໪ࣙ᥼छ㔥㒰᳡ࡵ㸠Ϯ᱃⇨DŽЁ݈ㄝЏ䆒໛ଚ᳝ᳯֵ⬉5
ᠽ໻䆹乚ඳϮࡵᔶ៤ᮄⱘ๲䭓⚍ˈ԰Ў㄀ϝᮍ᳡ࡵ啭༈ⱘⱘ೑㛝ǃջ䞡Ѣ㔥Ⳍ݇᡹ਞ
Ӭ᳡ࡵⱘढ᯳߭ݐ݋ফⲞ㸠Ϯ䲚Ёᑺᦤछⱘ҂⚍DŽ1ˊlj䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ2010ᑈ5᳜䎳䏾᡹ਞü๲ᬊ
ޣᬃ䖯㸠ᯊNJ.......................2010-05-27
亢䰽ᦤ⼎˖3G⫼᠋ঞᮄϮࡵথሩԢѢ乘ᳳˈ⍋໪⬉ֵᡩ䌘ঞ㒣⌢⦃๗ᙊ࣪DŽ5
lj䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ2010ᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹ü๲ؐ᳡ࡵˊ2
ˈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹DŽ佪䗝໻䗮ֵ᳡ࡵˈ᥼㤤⾥໻ǃ࣫㒀ǃढ᯳ǃ೑㛝ǃᘦᅱǃϝ㓈5
䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ㒻㓁ⳟདˈ᥼㤤⛑☿ǃ݇⊼᮹⍋DŽঞ⍜䌍᥹࡯䆒໛ᡩ䌘NJ......2009-12-09ܝ໻૤ǃᢧ㓈ǃ哢߽ㄝϾ㙵DŽ⊼݇
ϸা໻㙵⼼˖㘨䗮৥ད䍟࢓䗤ℹᎽ೎ˈᏖഎᇍ݊ゲѝ࡯੠Ϯ㒽ᦤछⱘ乘ᳳ᳝3ˊlj䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ2009ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹üᇚ
ᳯ䗤ℹछ催ˈᔧࠡ㙵ӋᏆ݋фܹ਌ᓩ࡯˗Ё݈݋໛ԄؐӬ࢓ˈ៥Ӏ䅸ৃ݊ᏖĀৢ3Gā䖯㸠ࠄᑩNJ.........2009-06-17
എᢧሩぎ䯈੠Ϯ㒽ᦤछ㛑࡯ˈϟञᑈ䋳䴶಴㋴㨑ᅮৢᑨ᳝Ϟ⍼㡃ᴎDŽ
EPSPE
㙵Ӌ˄ܗ˅
㙵⼼ㅔ⿄䆘㑻
˄ܗ˅10E11E12E10E11E12E
⾥໻䆃亲40.290.771.251.88523221фܹ
࣫㒀䗮ֵ35.760.550.991.80653620фܹ
ᢧ㓈ֵᙃ29.690.791.051.41382821фܹ
೑㛝⾥ᡔ13.880.370.540.76372618фܹ
ढ᯳߯Ϯ29.690.731.031.41412921фܹ
ϝ㓈䗮ֵ14.990.600.861.14251813фܹ
ᘦᅱ㙵ӑ16.570.430.741.30392313фܹ
⾥ढᘦⲯ46.871.271.952.55372418фܹ
⛑☿䗮ֵ28.190.801.091.49352619фܹ
Ё೑㘨䗮5.220.090.200.35572715фܹ
Ё݈䗮䆃32.881.782.312.87181411фܹ
DŽܗ˖䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼⊼˖㙵ӋЎ2010ᑈ6᳜21᮹ᬊⲬӋˈऩԡ

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
䗮ֵ㸠Ϯ2010ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹

Ⳃᔩ

䗮ֵ㸠Ϯಲ乒..............................................................................................................................................................1
䖤㧹Ϯ๲䭓ಲᱪˈԚձ✊У࡯..........................................................................................