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基于游程理论和Copula函数的辽宁省农业气象干旱特征研究.docx

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基于游程理论和Copula函数的辽宁省农业气象干旱特征研究 Title:AStudyontheCharacteristicsofAgriculturalMeteorologicalDroughtBasedonRunTheoryandCopulaFunctioninLiaoningProvince Abstract: Agriculturalmeteorologicaldroughtisamajornaturaldisasterthatcansignificantlyaffectcropproductionandeconomicdevelopmentinaregion.Inthisstudy,weaimtoinvestigatethecharacteristicsofagriculturalmeteorologicaldroughtinLiaoningProvince,China,bycombiningtheruntheoryandCopulafunction.Themethodologyincludesanalyzinghistoricalmeteorologicaldata,calculatingdroughtindices,identifyingdroughteventsusingtheruntheory,anddeterminingthedependencestructureofdroughtvariablesusingCopulafunction.Thefindingsofthisstudywillprovidevaluableinsightsintodroughtpreventionandmitigationstrategiesforagriculturalactivitiesintheregion. 1.Introduction: Agriculturalmeteorologicaldroughtreferstoaprolongedperiodofdryweatherconditionsthathaveadverseeffectsoncropgrowthandyields.LiaoningProvince,locatedinNortheastChina,isoneofthemajoragriculturalareasinthecountry.Understandingthecharacteristicsofagriculturalmeteorologicaldroughtinthisregioniscrucialforeffectivedroughtmanagementandagriculturalplanning. 2.Methodology: 2.1DataCollection: Meteorologicaldataincludingtemperature,precipitation,andevapotranspirationiscollectedfrommultipleweatherstationsinLiaoningProvince.ThesedataarenecessaryforcalculatingtheStandardizedPrecipitationIndex(SPI),StandardizedPrecipitationEvapotranspirationIndex(SPEI),andotherdroughtindices. 2.2CalculationofDroughtIndices: Variousdroughtindiceswillbecalculatedbasedonthecollectedmeteorologicaldata,includingSPIandSPEI.Theseindicesprovidevaluableinformationonthefrequency,duration,andseverityofdroughteventsinthestudyarea. 2.3IdentificationofDroughtEvents: Theruntheorywillbeemployedtoidentifydroughteventsbasedonthecalculateddroughtindices.Theruntheorydefinesdroughtasasequenceofconsecutivemonthswithnegativevaluesexceedingagiventhreshold.Thisapproachallowsfortheidentificationofdroughteventsofdifferentdurationsandintensities. 2.4CopulaF