预览加载中，请您耐心等待几秒...

基于DSGE模型的外生冲击对宏观经济的影响.docx

预览
1/2
2/2

在线预览结束，喜欢就下载吧，查找使用更方便

下载提示 文本预览

如果您无法下载资料，请参考说明：

1、部分资料下载需要金币，请确保您的账户上有足够的金币

2、已购买过的文档，再次下载不重复扣费

3、资料包下载后请先用软件解压，在使用对应软件打开

基于DSGE模型的外生冲击对宏观经济的影响 Title:TheImpactofExogenousShocksonMacroeconomicConditions:ADSGEApproach Abstract: ThispaperexaminestheeffectsofexogenousshocksonmacroeconomicconditionsusingtheDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)model.Exogenousshocksrefertounexpectedeventsordisturbancesthathaveasignificantimpactontheeconomy,suchaschangesingovernmentpolicies,internationaltrade,ortechnologicaladvancements.TheDSGEmodeloffersaframeworktoanalyzethetransmissionmechanismsandquantifythemacroeconomicconsequencesoftheseshocks.Thisstudyaimstoprovideinsightsintothepotentialimplicationsofexogenousshocksonkeymacroeconomicvariables,includingoutput,inflation,consumption,investment,andemployment. Introduction: Exogenousshocksplayacrucialroleinshapingtheeconomicperformanceofacountry.Theydeviatefromtheunderlyingequilibriumanddisruptthenormalfunctioningoftheeconomy.Understandingtheeffectsofsuchshocksisessentialforpolicymakersandresearcherstodevelopeffectivestrategiestomitigateadverseconsequencesandpromoteeconomicstability.TheDSGEmodelprovidesastructuralframeworkthatenablesustoanalyzethedynamicinteractionsamongvariouseconomicagentsandsectors.ThispaperemploystheDSGEmodeltoexaminethemacroeconomicimpactsofexogenousshocks. LiteratureReview: Previousstudieshaveemployedvariousempiricalandtheoreticalapproachestoinvestigatetheeffectsofexogenousshocksonmacroeconomicconditions.Forinstance,BlanchardandQuah(1989)pioneeredtheempiricalestimationofbusinesscyclefluctuationsusingstructuralvectorautoregressions.RomerandRomer(1989)exploredtheeffectsofexogenousmonetarypolicychangesonoutputandinflation.TheDSGEmodel,introducedbyKydlandandPrescott(1982)andfurtherdevelopedbyChristianoandEichenbaum(1992),hasgainedpopularityduetoitsabilitytocapturethedynamicandforward-lookingnatureoftheeconomy. Methodology: Thisstudyadoptsamedium-scaleDSGEmodel,whichincorporateskeyfeaturesoftheeconomy,includinghouseholds,firms,andthegovernment,aswellasvariousmarkets(goods,labor,andfinancial).ThemodeliscalibratedandestimatedusingBayesia