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台风灾害场景下考虑运行状态的配电网风险评估方法.docx

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台风灾害场景下考虑运行状态的配电网风险评估方法 Title:ConsiderationofOperationalStateinRiskAssessmentofDistributionNetworkinTyphoonDisasterScenarios Abstract: Withtheincreasingfrequencyandintensityoftyphoondisastersinvariouspartsoftheworld,itisessentialtoassesstherisksfacedbypowerdistributionnetworksinsuchscenarios.Traditionalriskassessmentmethodsgenerallyfocusonphysicalfactorssuchasweatherconditionsandequipmentvulnerabilities.However,theyoftenfailtoaccountfortheoperationalstateofthedistributionnetwork,whichcansignificantlyimpacttheoverallrisk.Thispaperproposesaframeworkfortheriskassessmentofdistributionnetworksintyphoondisasterscenarios,incorporatingtheconsiderationofoperationalstate.Theframeworkcombinestheprinciplesoffaulttreeanalysis,MonteCarlosimulation,andpowersystemoperationalstateassessmenttoprovideacomprehensiveevaluationofnetworkrisks.Theproposedmethodaimstoassistpowerdistributioncompaniesinmakinginformeddecisionsforriskmitigationanddisasterresponseintyphoon-proneregions. 1.Introduction 1.1Background 1.2Objective 1.3ScopeofStudy 2.LiteratureReview 2.1Traditionalapproachestoriskassessment 2.2Limitationsofexistingmethods 2.3Operationalstateassessmentinpowersystems 2.4Typhoondisasterriskassessmentmethods 3.Methodology 3.1Frameworkoverview 3.2Incorporatingoperationalstateassessment 3.3Faulttreeanalysis 3.4MonteCarlosimulation 3.5Networkresilienceandrecoveryassessment 4.Implementation 4.1Datacollectionandpreparation 4.2Casestudysetup 4.3Evaluationofoperationalstate 4.4Riskassessmentusingfaulttrees 4.5MonteCarlosimulationforuncertaintyanalysis 5.ResultsandDiscussion 5.1Evaluationofriskindicators 5.2Sensitivityanalysis 5.3Comparisonwithtraditionalriskassessmentmethods 6.CaseStudy:TyphoonDisasterScenario 6.1Descriptionofthescenario 6.2Performanceevaluationunderdifferentoperationalstates 6.3Analysisofriskmitigationstrategies 7.Conclusion 7.1Summaryoffindings 7.2Significanceoftheproposedmethod 7.3Futureresearchdirections References Note:Thesuggestedstructureaboveisjustanoutlineandshouldbead