预览加载中，请您耐心等待几秒...

上市公司管理层盈利预测乐观偏差影响因素研究.docx

预览
1/2
2/2

在线预览结束，喜欢就下载吧，查找使用更方便

下载提示 文本预览

如果您无法下载资料，请参考说明：

1、部分资料下载需要金币，请确保您的账户上有足够的金币

2、已购买过的文档，再次下载不重复扣费

3、资料包下载后请先用软件解压，在使用对应软件打开

上市公司管理层盈利预测乐观偏差影响因素研究 Title:FactorsInfluencingOptimisticBiasinProfitForecastingbyManagementinListedCompanies Abstract: Thispaperaimstoexplorethefactorsthatcontributetotheoptimisticbiasinprofitforecastingbythemanagementoflistedcompanies.Accurateprofitforecastingplaysacrucialroleininvestmentdecisionsandoverallcompanyperformance.However,researchsuggeststhatmanagementfrequentlyexhibitsabiastowardsoverestimatingfutureprofits.Thepaperinvestigatestheunderlyingreasonsforthisbias,includingpsychologicalandeconomicfactors.Understandingthesefactorscanhelpinvestors,regulators,andmanagementitselfmitigatetheimpactofoptimisticbiasondecision-making. 1.Introduction Profitforecastingisanessentialaspectofcorporatefinancialmanagementasitguidesstrategicdecision-making,shapesinvestmentchoices,andinfluencesinvestors'perceptionofacompany'sfutureprospects.However,studieshaveconsistentlydemonstratedthatmanagementtendstooverestimatefutureprofits,leadingtoanoptimisticbias.Thisbiascanhavefar-reachingconsequencesforfinancialmarketsandcompanyperformance.Exploringthefactorscontributingtothisbiasiscrucialforinvestorstomakeinformeddecisionsandformanagementtoenhanceforecastingaccuracy. 2.PsychologicalFactors Psychologicalfactorsplayasignificantroleintheoptimisticbiasexhibitedbymanagementinprofitforecasting.Theseincludecognitivebiases,suchasoverconfidence,anchoring,andconfirmationbias.Overconfidenceleadsmanagerstooverestimatefutureprofitsduetoaninflatedsenseoftheirownabilitiesandthebeliefthattheypossesssuperiorinformation.Anchoringbiasmakesmanagersfocusoncertaininformationorpastperformanceandfailtoadequatelyaccountforotherrelevantfactors.Confirmationbiascausesmanagerstoseekandinterpretinformationthatsupportstheirpreconceivedoptimisticexpectationswhiledismissingcontradictoryevidence. 3.EconomicFactors Economicfactorsalsocontributetotheoptimisticbiasinprofitforecasting.Onesuchfactoristheagencyproblem.Managersmayhaveanincentivetooverestimateprofitstoincreasetheircompensationormaintaintheirpositionwithinth