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地铁建设运营期的地质风险可拓评估模型研究.docx

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地铁建设运营期的地质风险可拓评估模型研究 【Abstract】 Theconstructionandoperationofsubwaysystemsinevitablyfacegeologicalrisks,whichcanhaveasignificantimpactonthesafetyandstabilityofthesystem.However,currentmethodsforassessinggeologicalrisksoftenlacksufficientconsiderationofuncertaintyandflexibility.Inthispaper,weproposeanovelmodelforassessinggeologicalrisksduringtheconstructionandoperationofsubways,whichincorporatesflexibleanduncertainvariables.Ourmodelcanprovidevaluableinformationfordecision-makingregardingsubwayconstructionandoperation,enhancingthesafetyandstabilityofsubwaysystems. 【Introduction】 Subwaysystemsplayanessentialroleinmodernurbantransportation.However,theconstructionandoperationofsubwaysareoftenfacedwithvariousgeologicalrisks,suchaslandslides,groundsubsidence,andgeologicalhazardscausedbygeologicalstructuresorgroundwater.Thesegeologicalriskscanhaveasignificantimpactonthestabilityandsafetyofsubwaysystems,causingsignificanteconomiclossesandevencasualties. Theassessmentofgeologicalrisksinsubwayconstructionandoperationisanessentialtaskthatrequirescomprehensiveconsiderationofvariousfactors.Currentmethodsforassessinggeologicalrisksusuallyrelyonthedeterministicmodel,whichlackstheabilitytoconsideruncertaintiesandinterferences.Therefore,thereisanurgentneedtodevelopaflexibleanduncertainassessmentmodelforgeologicalrisksinsubwayconstructionandoperation. 【Methods】 OurproposedmodelforassessinggeologicalrisksinsubwayconstructionandoperationappliestheFuzzyCognitiveMap(FCM)andBayesianNetworks(BN)toincorporateuncertainvariablesandinterferences.TheFuzzyCognitiveMapisamodelingtoolusedtoexplorethecausalitybetweenvariables.IncombinationwithBooleanlogic,theFCMcanprovideaflexibleandcomprehensiverepresentationofthecausalrelationshipsanddependenciesbetweenvariables.TheBayesianNetworkisagraphicalmodelusedtorepresenttheprobabilisticrelationshipsbetweenvariables.UsingtheBN,wecanevaluatetheprobabilityofeachscenario,whichiscrucialforriskanalysis. Ourmodelcanbeseparatedintotwoparts:theconstructionphaseandt