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变权重组合改进模型应用于中期电力负荷的预测.docx

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变权重组合改进模型应用于中期电力负荷的预测 Title:ImprovingMid-TermElectricityLoadForecastingusingVarianceWeightedCombinationModel Abstract: Accuratemid-termelectricityloadforecastingiscrucialforpowersystemplanning,operation,anddecision-making.Traditionalforecastingmodelsoftensufferfromlimitedaccuracyduetothecomplexityanduncertaintyoftheelectricityload.Thispaperproposesavarianceweightedcombinationmodeltoenhancetheaccuracyofmid-termelectricityloadforecasting.Themodelaimstoexploitthevaluableinformationcontainedindifferentforecastingtechniquesbyassigningappropriateweightsaccordingtothevarianceoftheindividualforecasts.Experimentalresultsshowthatthevarianceweightedcombinationmodeloutperformstraditionalforecastingmodelsintermsofaccuracyandrobustness,makingitapromisingapproachforenhancingelectricityloadforecasting. 1.Introduction Electricityloadforecastingisachallengingtaskthatplaysavitalroleinensuringthereliableandefficientoperationofpowersystems.Accurateloadforecastsareessentialforvariousapplications,includingenergyprocurement,infrastructureplanning,andgridstabilityassessment.However,accuratemid-termloadforecastingremainsasignificantissueduetotheinherentuncertaintyandcomplexityoftheelectricityload. 2.RelatedWork Severaltraditionalmodelshavebeenusedformid-termelectricityloadforecasting,includingstatisticalmethods,neuralnetworks,andtimeseriesanalysis.However,thesemodelsoftensufferfromlimitationsinaccuracyandrobustness.Toovercometheselimitations,ensembleforecastingmethodshavegainedpopularityinrecentyears. 3.VarianceWeightedCombinationModel Theproposedvarianceweightedcombinationmodelaimstoexploitthecomplementarynatureofdifferentforecastingtechniquestoenhancetheaccuracyofmid-termloadforecasting.Themodelworksbyassigningappropriateweightstoindividualforecastsbasedontheirvariances.Forecastswithlowervariancesaregivenhigherweights,indicatingtheirhigherreliabilityandconsistencywiththehistoricaldata. 4.ExperimentalSetup Acomprehensivesetofexperimentswasconductedtoevaluatetheeffectivenessofthevarianceweig