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中国——东盟自由贸易区贸易转移效应的实证分析.docx

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中国——东盟自由贸易区贸易转移效应的实证分析 Introduction TheChina-ASEANFreeTradeArea(CAFTA)wasestablishedin2002andbecameoperationalin2010.Itisthelargestfreetradeareaintermsofpopulationandgeographicalcoverage.TheagreementisaimedatboostingtradebetweenChinaandthetenASEANmemberstates(Brunei,Cambodia,Indonesia,Laos,Malaysia,Myanmar,thePhilippines,Singapore,Thailand,andVietnam).ThispaperexaminesthetradediversioneffectofCAFTAonthetradebetweenChinaandASEANcountries. TradeDiversionEffect Tradediversioneffectreferstoasituationwherefreetradeagreements(FTAs)diverttradefromlow-costandnon-membercountriestohigh-costmembercountries.AnFTAissaidtocausetradediversionifitiseasierandcheaperforthemembercountriestotradewitheachotherratherthanwithnon-membercountries.Asaresult,thebenefitsoftheagreementwillmostlyaccruetothemembercountrieswhilenon-membercountriesloseaccesstothemarket. EmpiricalAnalysis EmpiricalevidencesuggeststhatCAFTAhasbothtradecreationandtradediversioneffectsontradebetweenChinaandASEANcountries.AstudybyChenandCheng(2011)foundthatCAFTAincreasedtradebetweenChinaandASEANcountries,withasignificanttradecreationeffectonbothimportsandexports.Thestudyusedgravitymodelstoestimatethetradeeffectsoftheagreement.TheresultsshowedthatCAFTAledtoanincreaseinbilateraltradebetweenChinaandASEANcountriesbymorethan10%. However,CAFTAalsohadatradediversioneffectontradebetweenChinaandnon-ASEANcountries.ThestudyfoundthatCAFTAledtoareductioninthetradebetweenChinaandnon-ASEANcountries,especiallythosethathadMFN(MostFavoredNation)statuswithChina.ThestudyconcludedthatthetradediversioneffectwasmoresignificantinsectorswhereCAFTAhadahigherreductionintariffrates. AnotherstudybyLiandYao(2014)foundthatCAFTAhadsignificanttradecreationeffectsonthetradebetweenChinaandASEANcountries,especiallyinsectorswheretherewashighertariffreduction.Thestudyalsofoundevidenceoftradediversioneffectsfromnon-ASEANcountriestoASEANcountries,althoughtheeffectwasnotstatisticallysignificant. Conclusion Inconclusion,CAFTAhasbothtradecreationandtradediversio