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“一带一路”背景下中国与文莱贸易实证研究——基于贸易引力模型测算分析.docx

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“一带一路”背景下中国与文莱贸易实证研究——基于贸易引力模型测算分析 Title:ACaseStudyonChina-BruneiTradeundertheBackgroundoftheBeltandRoadInitiative:AnAnalysisBasedontheGravityModel Abstract: WiththedevelopmentoftheBeltandRoadInitiative,bilateraltradebetweenChinaandBruneihaswitnessedsignificantgrowth.Thispaperaimstoanalyzethetraderelationshipbetweenthetwocountriesusingthegravitymodel,measuringtheimpactofvariousfactorsontradeflows.ThefindingsprovideinsightsintotheeffectivenessoftheBeltandRoadInitiativeinpromotingtrade,aswellassuggestionsforfurtherenhancingeconomiccooperationbetweenChinaandBrunei. Introduction: TheBeltandRoadInitiative,proposedbyChinesePresidentXiJinpingin2013,aimstoenhanceconnectivityandpromoteeconomiccooperationamongcountriesalongtheancientSilkRoad.Asoneofthecountriesparticipatingintheinitiative,BruneihasbeenactivelyinvolvedinpromotingtradeandinvestmentwithChina.ThisstudywillutilizethegravitymodeltoanalyzethetraderelationshipbetweenChinaandBrunei,consideringvariousfactorsthatinfluencetradeflows. LiteratureReview: Thegravitymodel,initiallyproposedbyeconomistsTinbergenandPöyhönen,suggeststhatthevolumeoftradebetweentwocountriesisproportionaltotheireconomicsizesandinverselyrelatedtotheirdistancefromeachother.Manystudieshavesuccessfullyappliedthegravitymodeltoanalyzetraderelationships,providingvaluableinsightsintotradepatternsandtheeffectivenessofpolicyinterventions. Methodology: ThisstudywillemploythegravitymodelframeworktoanalyzethetraderelationshipbetweenChinaandBrunei.Themodelwillincorporatevariablessuchasthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofbothcountries,geographicaldistance,andtradebarriers.Thedatausedforanalysiswillbecollectedfromrelevantinternationalorganizationsanddatabases. FindingsandAnalysis: Basedonthegravitymodelestimation,itisexpectedthatanincreaseinChina'sGDPwillpositivelyimpacttradeflowsbetweenChinaandBrunei.Similarly,anincreaseinBrunei'sGDPwillalsohaveapositiveeffectonbilateraltrade.However,thegeographicaldistancebetweenthetwocountriesislikelytohaveanegativeimpactontrade,asthe