预览加载中，请您耐心等待几秒...

GRAPES_MESO模式对一次强降水过程的预报及误差分析.docx

预览
1/2
2/2

在线预览结束，喜欢就下载吧，查找使用更方便

下载提示 文本预览

如果您无法下载资料，请参考说明：

1、部分资料下载需要金币，请确保您的账户上有足够的金币

2、已购买过的文档，再次下载不重复扣费

3、资料包下载后请先用软件解压，在使用对应软件打开

GRAPES_MESO模式对一次强降水过程的预报及误差分析 Title:PredictionandErrorAnalysisofaHeavyPrecipitationEventusingtheGRAPES_MESOModel Abstract: Theaccuratepredictionofheavyprecipitationeventsiscrucialforeffectivedisastermanagementandmitigation.ThisstudyaimstoinvestigatethepredictioncapabilitiesanderroranalysisofaheavyprecipitationeventthroughtheuseoftheGRAPES_MESOnumericalweatherpredictionmodel.Themodel'sperformancewasevaluatedagainstobserveddata,andthesourcesoferrorwereanalyzed.Thefindingsprovidevaluableinsightsforimprovingforecastaccuracyandenhancingtheoverallunderstandingofheavyprecipitationprocesses. 1.Introduction: Heavyprecipitationeventsoftenresultinseverefloods,landslides,andotherhydro-meteorologicaldisasters.Accuratepredictionofsucheventsisessentialforreducingtheirimpacts.Numericalweatherpredictionmodelshavebecomeanindispensabletoolforweatherforecasters,aidinginthepredictionofshort-term(0-72hours)weatherconditions.TheGRAPES_MESOmodelisastate-of-the-artnumericalweatherpredictionsystemdevelopedbytheChinaMeteorologicalAdministration.ThisstudyaimstoevaluatetheperformanceoftheGRAPES_MESOmodelinpredictingaspecificheavyprecipitationeventandconductanerroranalysistoimproveitsforecastaccuracy. 2.Methodology: Thisstudyusedobservationaldatafrommeteorologicalstations,radars,andsatelliteimagerytoverifythepredictionsmadebytheGRAPES_MESOmodelforaspecificheavyprecipitationevent.Thedataincludedvariablessuchasprecipitation,temperature,humidity,windspeed,andatmosphericpressure.Statisticalanalysistechniques,suchastherootmeansquareerror(RMSE)andmeanabsoluteerror(MAE),wereemployedtoassessthemodel'spredictionaccuracy.Thespatiotemporalcharacteristicsofthepredictedandobservedvariableswereanalyzedandcompared. 3.Results: TheGRAPES_MESOmodeldemonstratedreasonablepredictiveskillfortheheavyprecipitationeventunderinvestigation.Themodeleffectivelycapturedtheoverallspatialdistributionandtimingoftheprecipitation.However,therewerediscrepanciesbetweenthepredictedandobservedprecipitationmagnitudes,withthemodeltendi