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financialcrisis.doc

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ThefailureoftheUSfinancialbailout紧急援助hashadavolatileeffectonEuropeanfinancialmarketswithbankingsharesinLondonthehardesthit. Theworldfinancialsystemisteetering动摇onthe"brink边缘ofsystemicmeltdown", --richnationshadsofarfailedtorestoreconfidence "Intensifying增强solvency债务偿付能力concernsaboutanumberofthelargestUS-basedandEuropeanfinancialinstitutionshavepushedtheglobalfinancialsystemtothebrinkofsystemicmeltdown," ---Thefirstco-ordinationbetweenadvancedcountriesandtherestoftheworldisnowontrack." ---TheIMFchief'sstrongwordsreflectabeliefthattheglobalfinancialcrisiscanbecontained. ---ThemeetingcameadayafterAsian,EuropeanandUSmarketscontinuedtopanicselldespiteratecutsandcashinjections注射bycentralbanks,amidwidespreadfearsofaglobalrecession. Thistime,marketplayersseemtrulyhorrified—becausethey’vesuddenlyrealizedthattheydon’tunderstandthecomplexfinancialsystemtheycreated.Credit—lendingbetweenmarketplayers—istothefinancialmarketswhatmotoroilistocarengines.Theabilitytoraisecashonshortnotice,whichiswhatpeoplemeanwhentheytalkabout“liquidity,”isanessentiallubricantforthemarkets,andfortheeconomyasawhole. Butliquidityhasbeendryingup.Somecreditmarketshaveeffectivelyclosedupshop.—liketheLondonmarket,inwhichbankslendtoeachother—haverisenevenasinterestratesonU.S.governmentdebt,whichisstillconsideredsafe,haveplunged. “Whatwearewitnessingisessentiallythebreakdownofourmodern-daybankingsystem,acomplexofleveragedlendingsohardtounderstandthatFederalReserveChairmanrequiredaface-to-facerefreshercoursefromhedgefundmanagersinmid-August.” Thefreezingupofthefinancialmarketswill,ifitgoesonmuchlonger,leadtoaseverereductioninoveralllending,causingbusinessinvestmenttogothewayofhomeconstruction—andthatwillmeanarecession,possiblyanastyone. Behindthedisappearanceofliquidityliesacollapseoftrust:marketplayersdon’twanttolendtoeachother,becausethey’renotsurethey’llberepaid. Whywasthisallowedtohappen?Atadeeplevel,Ibelievethattheproblemwasideological:policymakers,committedtotheviewthatthemarketisalwaysright,simplyignor