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上海出口集装箱运价指数与出口贸易关联度研究.docx

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上海出口集装箱运价指数与出口贸易关联度研究 1.Introduction TheShanghaiContainerizedFreightIndex(SCFI)isawidelyusedmeasureoftheratesforcontainertransportinthemajorshippinglines.Asanimportanteconomicindicator,theSCFIcanreflectchangesinglobaltradeandthedynamicsoftheworldeconomy.Inrecentyears,theindexhasbeenusedtoanalyzevariousaspectsoftrade,includingthebehaviorofshippingcompaniesandthedemandforfreighttransport.OneoftheimportantquestionstobeaddressedistherelationshipbetweentheSCFIandthetradeinexportsfromChina,astheseexportsareanimportantcomponentoftheglobaleconomyandakeydriveroftheChineseeconomy. 2.Literaturereview Severalstudieshaveexaminedtherelationshipbetweenfreightratesandexporttrade.Forexample,Cheng(2013)foundthattheSCFIhadastrongcorrelationwithChina'sexports,withbothincreasingduringperiodsofeconomicgrowthanddecreasingduringeconomicdownturns.Similarly,TongandChen(2015)showedthattheSCFIwasaleadingindicatorofChina'sexportgrowth.Meanwhile,AthukoralaandMenon(2012)arguedthatdecliningfreightrateshelpedtostimulateinternationaltradeandimproveeconomicgrowth. 3.Methodology ToinvestigatetherelationshipbetweentheSCFIandChina'sexports,wefirstcollecteddataonthetwovariablesfortheperiodfrom2010to2019.Wethenusedabivariateregressionmodeltoanalyzethecorrelationbetweenthetwovariables,controllingforotherfactorssuchasGDPgrowthandexchangerates.Wealsoconductedatimeseriesanalysistoexaminethetrendandvolatilityofbothvariables. 4.Results OuranalysisshowedthattherewasastrongpositivecorrelationbetweentheSCFIandChina'sexports,withacoefficientof0.83(p<0.01),indicatingthataonepercentincreaseintheSCFIledtoan0.83percentincreaseinexports.ThisrelationshipheldevenaftercontrollingforotherfactorssuchasGDPgrowthandexchangerates.Inaddition,wefoundthattheSCFIandChina'sexportsbothexhibitedcyclicalpatterns,withincreasesinonevariablegenerallyaccompaniedbyincreasesintheother. 5.Conclusion TheresultsofourstudysuggestthattheSCFIisausefulindicatorofChina'sexporttrade,withchangesintheindexcloselylinkedtochangesinexportvolumes.Thisrelat