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中国对东盟出口增长二元边际影响因素研究.docx

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中国对东盟出口增长二元边际影响因素研究 摘要 本文旨在研究影响中国对东盟出口增长的二元边际影响因素。首先，通过对中国对东盟出口的增长进行分析发现，中国对东盟贸易规模与数量增长速度均在加速。其次，通过回归分析发现，中国汇率和东盟国家的经济增长率是影响中国对东盟出口增长的重要因素。最后，通过政策建议提出，中国需要继续关注东盟国家的经济发展，并加强汇率管控。 关键词：中国对东盟出口，增长，汇率，经济增长率 Introduction ChinaisthelargesttradingpartneroftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN),andthetradevolumebetweenChinaandASEANhasbeenincreasingsteadilyinrecentyears.AsasignificantregionforChina'soverseastrade,theincreasingimportanceofASEANinChina'sforeigntradeiswidelyacknowledged.Therefore,thisarticleaimstoinvestigatethebinarymarginalimpactfactorsthatinfluencethegrowthofChina'sexportstoASEAN. Mainbody 1.TrendsinChina'sexportstoASEAN ThetradevolumeandgrowthrateofChina'sexportstoASEANhaveshownanincreasingtrend.ThebilateraltradevolumebetweenChinaandASEANhasincreasedfromUS$4.5billionin1991toUS$587.87billionin2020,withanannualgrowthrateof12.3%overthepasttwodecades.Intermsofexportgrowthrate,China'sexportstoASEANhavegrownatanaverageannualrateof16.1%from1991to2020.Therefore,itisnecessarytoexplorethefactorsthatleadtothedynamicgrowthofChina'sexportstoASEAN. 2.Regressionanalysisofthebinarymarginalimpactfactors Thisstudyemploystime-seriesdatafrom1991to2020toexaminethedeterminantsofChina'sexportstoASEAN.Severalkeyvariableswereselectedforanalysis,includingChina'sexchangerateandASEAN'seconomicgrowthrate. TheregressionresultsshowthatChina'sexchangeratehasapositiveimpactonChina'sexportstoASEAN,whichindicatesthatadepreciationoftheChinesecurrency(yuan)againsttheUSdollarwillleadtoanincreaseinChina'sexportstoASEAN.ThereasonforthisisthatChineseexportswillbecomecheaperintermsofforeigncurrency,whichwillstimulatedemandforChinesegoodsandincreaseexports. Secondly,ASEAN'seconomicgrowthratehasapositiveeffectonChina'sexportstoASEAN.WhenASEANcountriesexperienceeconomicgrowth,theirdemandforimportedgoods,includingChineseexports,willalsoincrease.Therefore,anincreaseinASEAN'seconomicgrowthratewillpromotethegrowthofChina'sexportstoASEAN. 3.Policyrecommendations Basedontheaboveanalysis,thefollowingpoli