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APowerfultheory--simpleandaccurate:balanceofpower Oneofthelongest-standingandmostfrequentlyusedconceptsisbalanceofpower,whicheighteenth-centuryphilosopherDavidHumecalled"aconstantruleofprudentpolitics."Forcenturies,balanceofpowerhasbeenthestartingpointforrealisticdiscussionsofinternationalpolitics. Ausefulpredictorofhowstateswillbehave:stateswillaligninamannerthatwillpreventanyonestatefromdevelopingapreponderanceofpower. Basedontwopreconditions: 1,Statesexistinananarchicsystemwithnohighergovernment. 2,Politicalleaderswillactfirsttoreduceriskstotheindependenceoftheirstates. Balanceofpowerdoesnotmeanthatpoliticalleadersmustmaximizethepoweroftheirownstatesintheshortrun.Bandwagoning--thatis,joiningthestrongerratherthantheweakerside--mightproducemoreimmediatespoils(战利品）. Proximityandperceptionsofthreatalsoaffectthewayinwhichbalancingofpowerisplayedout. Theproximatethreat--SovietUnion. ThequestionIraisetodayis:Dostatesallymoreoftenwiththeweakerorwiththestrongersideinaconflict?Intheparlanceofinternationalrelationstheory:dostatestendtobalanceagainstorbandwagonwitharisingstateorcoalition? Whileinternationalrelationsscholarshavetraditionallyacceptedtheviewthatstatesbalanceagainstthreateningincreasesofpower,paradoxically,practitionersthroughtheageshaveheldabandwagoningimageofinternationalpolitics.AsJackSnyderremarks,"mostimperialstrategistsdefendingfar-flungcommitmentshavefearedfallingdominoes,andmostrisingchallengershaveanticipatedbandwagoneffects."3DeanAcheson,forexample,expressedthebandwagoningimagethatunderlayAmericancontainmentstrategy,warningtheU.S.cabinetin1947that,"ifGreecefellwithintheRussianorbit,notonlyTurkeywouldbeaffectedbutalsoItaly,France,andthewholeofWesternEurope." Thebandwagoningbeliefthat"nothingsucceedslikesuccess"inwarhasbeenattheheartofeverybid(努力）forworldmastery.Napoleonasserted:"MypowerdependsonmygloryandmygloriesonthevictoriesIhavewon.MypowerwillfailifIdonotfeeditonnewgloriesandnewvictories.ConquesthasmademewhatIam,andonlyconquestcanenablemetoho