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中国入境旅游外汇收入预测研究——基于多种灰色组合模型的应用.docx

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中国入境旅游外汇收入预测研究——基于多种灰色组合模型的应用 摘要： 本文旨在对中国入境旅游外汇收入进行预测研究，探究多种灰色组合模型的应用。首先，通过数据分析和文献综述，确定了影响中国入境旅游外汇收入的关键因素，并使用GM(1,1)模型、AGM模型、AGM-GM(1,1)组合模型、AGM-DGM(1,1)组合模型和AGM-DGM(1,1)-GM(1,1)组合模型五种灰色组合模型进行预测。最终，通过模型评价指标确认了AGM-DGM(1,1)-GM(1,1)组合模型具有最高预测精度，是一种适合用于预测中国入境旅游外汇收入的模型。 关键词：中国入境旅游；外汇收入；灰色组合模型；预测 Abstract: ThispaperaimstostudythepredictionofChina'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincomeandexploretheapplicationofmultiplegraycombinationmodels.Firstly,keyfactorsthatinfluenceChina'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincomeweredeterminedthroughdataanalysisandliteraturereview.Fivegraycombinationmodels,namelyGM(1,1)model,AGMmodel,AGM-GM(1,1)combinedmodel,AGM-DGM(1,1)combinedmodel,andAGM-DGM(1,1)-GM(1,1)combinedmodel,wereusedforprediction.Finally,theAGM-DGM(1,1)-GM(1,1)combinedmodelwasconfirmedtohavethehighestpredictionaccuracythroughmodelevaluationindexes,anditwasasuitablemodelforpredictingChina'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincome. Keywords:Chinainboundtourism;foreignexchangeincome;graycombinationmodel;prediction 1.Introduction China'sinboundtourismhasplayedanimportantroleinpromotingthedevelopmentofChina'stourismindustryinrecentyears.AccordingtostatisticsreleasedbytheChinaNationalTourismAdministration,China'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincomereached126.2billionU.S.dollarsin2019,makingChinaoneofthetopcountriesintheworldintermsofinboundtourism.Asanimportantsourceofforeignexchangeincome,itisnecessarytopredictChina'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincomeaccurately.ThispaperaimstostudythepredictionofChina'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincomeandexploretheapplicationofmultiplegraycombinationmodels. 2.Literaturereview 2.1KeyfactorsinfluencingChina'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincome TherearemanyfactorsthataffectChina'sinboundtourismforeignexchangeincome,includingeconomicdevelopment,exchangerate,tourismpolicies,andculturalexchange.Intermsofeconomicdevelopment,thehigherthelevelofeconomicdevelopment,thehighertheforeignexchangeincomefrominboundtourism.Intermsofexchangerate,adepreciationofthedomesticc