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系统仿真可信度评估方法研究.docx

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系统仿真可信度评估方法研究 Title:ResearchonMethodsforEvaluatingtheTrustworthinessofSystemSimulation Abstract: Systemsimulationplaysavitalroleinunderstandingcomplexsystems,predictingperformance,andmakinginformeddecisions.However,thetrustworthinessofsimulationresultsisessentialtoensureaccurateandreliablemodels.Thispaperaimstoexploreandevaluatevariousmethodsforassessingthetrustworthinessofsystemsimulations.Theevaluationwillconsideraspectssuchasmodelvalidation,verification,andsensitivityanalysis.Byunderstandingandapplyingthesemethods,researchersandpractitionerscanenhancethecredibilityoftheirsimulationfindingsandfacilitateinformeddecision-makingprocesses. 1.Introduction Withtheincreasingcomplexityofsystemsinvariousdomains,systemsimulationhasbecomeanindispensabletoolforunderstandingsystembehavior,predictingperformance,andoptimizingoperations.However,thereliabilityandcredibilityofsimulationresultsarecriticalfordecision-makerstotrustandbasetheirchoices.Thispaperfocusesonevaluatingthetrustworthinessofsystemsimulationresultsusingvariousmethods. 2.ModelValidation Modelvalidationensuresthatthesimulationmodelaccuratelyrepresentsthereal-worldsystem.Thisprocessinvolvescomparingsimulatedresultswithempiricalorexperimentaldatatoassessthemodel'sabilitytoreplicatereal-worldbehavior.Validationtechniquesincludequantitativemeasuressuchasstatisticalanalysis,goodness-of-fittests,andvalidationplots.Additionally,qualitativeanalysisthroughexpertjudgmentandpeerreviewcanalsocontributetothevalidationprocess. 3.ModelVerification Modelverificationassessesthecorrectnessandaccuracyofthesimulationmodel'simplementation.Itinvolvescheckingwhetherthemodelhasbeenprogrammedcorrectlyandwhetheritalignswiththeintendedsystemspecification.Verificationtechniquesincludecodereview,unittesting,andsoftwareverificationtools.Ensuringthatthesimulationmodelbehavesasintendediscrucialforestablishingtrustintheresults. 4.SensitivityAnalysis Sensitivityanalysisevaluateshowchangesininputparametersorassumptionsaffectthesimulationoutput.Byte