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利用后向预报方法分析印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估模型 Title:ApplicationofBackwardForecastingMethodintheAnalysisofIndianOceanYellowfinTunaResourceAssessmentModel Abstract: TheIndianOceanyellowfintuna(Thunnusalbacares)isahighly-valuedandcommerciallyimportantspecies.Duetoincreasingfishingpressureandhabitatdegradation,thereisanurgentneedforeffectiveresourceassessmentstoensuresustainablemanagementofthisspecies.ThispaperaimstoexploretheapplicationofthebackwardforecastingmethodinanalyzingtheIndianOceanyellowfintunaresourceassessmentmodel.Thebackwardforecastingmethodisparticularlysuitableforassessingfishpopulationswithlimitedhistoricaldata,makingitavaluabletoolforassessingthisspecies.Thisstudyhighlightsthesignificanceofthebackwardforecastingmethodinimprovingtheaccuracyofresourceassessmentsandinformingsustainablemanagementstrategies. 1.Introduction 1.1Background 1.2ObjectiveoftheStudy 2.FisheryandResourceAssessmentModels 2.1IndianOceanYellowfinTunaFishery 2.2ResourceAssessmentModels 2.3LimitationsofTraditionalModels 3.BackwardForecastingMethod 3.1OverviewoftheBackwardForecastingMethod 3.2SuitabilityforIndianOceanYellowfinTunaResourceAssessment 3.3AdvantagesandLimitationsoftheBackwardForecastingMethod 4.ApplicationoftheBackwardForecastingMethodinIndianOceanYellowfinTunaResourceAssessment 4.1DataCollectionandPreprocessing 4.2ModelDevelopmentandCalibration 4.3ValidationandEvaluationoftheModel 4.4AnalysisofResults 5.InterpretationandImplications 5.1ResourceDynamicsandHealthofIndianOceanYellowfinTuna 5.2ManagementRecommendations 5.3FutureResearchDirections 6.Conclusion 6.1SummaryofFindings 6.2SignificanceoftheBackwardForecastingMethod 6.3ImplicationsforIndianOceanYellowfinTunaManagement References 1.Introduction 1.1Background TheIndianOceanyellowfintuna(Thunnusalbacares)isahighlyvaluableandcommerciallyimportantspecies,supportingbothdomesticandinternationalmarkets.Overtheyears,theyellowfintunapopulationintheIndianOceanhasfacedincreasingfishingpressureduetothegrowingdemandforseafoodproducts.Additionally,habita