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2016年梅汛期降雨环流特征及ECMWF中期预报偏差分析.docx

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2016年梅汛期降雨环流特征及ECMWF中期预报偏差分析 Title:AnalysisoftheRainfallCirculationCharacteristicsduringthe2016PlumRainsSeasonandDeviationAnalysisofECMWFMedium-RangeForecast Abstract: ThePlumRainsseason,occurringfromMaytoJuly,playsasignificantroleintheEastAsianmonsoonrainfalldistributionandregionalclimate.Inthisstudy,weanalyzetherainfallcirculationcharacteristicsduringthe2016PlumRainsseasonandevaluatethedeviationoftheEuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasts(ECMWF)medium-rangeforecast.TheanalysiswillcontributetoabetterunderstandingofthevariabilityofPlumRainsseasonandtheperformanceofECMWFincapturingitsfeatures. 1.Introduction: ThePlumRainsseasonisacrucialperiodforEastAsia'srainstormandfloodeventsduetocontinuous,heavyandprolongedrainfall.Accuratepredictionofthecharacteristicsofthisseasonisessentialforearlywarningsystemsanddisastermanagement.However,duetothecomplexityoftheregionalmonsoonsystem,forecastingthePlumRainsseasonremainschallenging.Thispaperaimstoanalyzetherainfallcirculationcharacteristicsduringthe2016PlumRainsseasonandevaluatetheperformanceofECMWFmedium-rangeforecastincapturingthesecharacteristics. 2.DataandMethods: TheanalysisutilizesprecipitationdatafrommeteorologicalstationslocatedinEastAsiaandsurroundingregions.TheECMWFmedium-rangeforecastdataforthesameperiodisalsoobtained.Therainfalldistribution,circulationpatterns,andassociatedatmosphericvariablesareexaminedusingstatisticalandgraphicaltechniques.ThedeviationoftheECMWFforecastsfromobservedrainfallpatternsisquantitativelyevaluated. 3.RainfallCirculationCharacteristicsduringthe2016PlumRainsSeason: The2016PlumRainsseasonexperiencedabove-averagerainfallinEastAsia,resultinginseveralfloodevents.Large-scalecirculationpatternssuchastheEastAsianSummerMonsoon(EASM),WesternPacificSubtropicalHigh(WPSH),andMeiyuFrontalSystem(MFS)playedasignificantroleindeterminingtherainfalldistribution.TheMFS,characterizedbyanorthwardshift,playedacrucialroleintherainfallanomaliesobservedduringthePlumRainsseason.TheSouthChinaSea(SCS)monsoontrou