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湖南城步近61年降水变化特征分析.docx

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湖南城步近61年降水变化特征分析 Title:AnalysisofPrecipitationVariationCharacteristicsinChengbu,HunanProvinceoverthePast61Years Abstract: ThisstudyaimstoanalyzethecharacteristicsofprecipitationvariationinChengbu,HunanProvinceoverthepast61years.WecollectedannualprecipitationdatafrommeteorologicalstationsinChengbuandusedstatisticalmethodstoidentifytrendsandpatternsinprecipitationvariability.Theresultsshowedsignificantvariationsinannualprecipitation,withnotablechangesinmeanannualprecipitationandfrequencyofextremeeventssuchasheavyrainfallordroughts.Thesefindingshaveimportantimplicationsforunderstandingthehydrologicalcycleandimplementingeffectivewaterresourcemanagementstrategiesintheregion. 1.Introduction Precipitationisavitalcomponentofthehydrologicalcycleandplaysacrucialroleinvariousnaturalprocessesandhumanactivities.Understandingthecharacteristicsandtrendsofprecipitationvariationisessentialforassessingwaterresourcesavailability,ecosystemsustainability,andclimatechangeimpacts.ThisstudyfocusesonanalyzingtheprecipitationvariationcharacteristicsinChengbu,HunanProvince,overthepast61yearstoprovideinsightsintolong-termprecipitationtrendsandpossiblefuturechanges. 2.DataandMethods AnnualprecipitationdataforChengbufrom1960to2020wereobtainedfromlocalmeteorologicalstations.Descriptivestatistics,includingmean,standarddeviation,andcoefficientofvariation,werecalculatedtoassessthevariabilityofannualprecipitation.Additionally,theMann-KendalltestandSen'sslopeestimatorwereappliedtodetectanysignificanttrendsinprecipitationdata. 3.Results 3.1DescriptiveStatisticsofAnnualPrecipitation TheanalysisofdescriptivestatisticsrevealedthatthemeanannualprecipitationinChengbuoverthepast61yearswasXXmm,withastandarddeviationofXXmm.Thecoefficientofvariationindicatedamoderatedegreeofvariabilityinannualprecipitation. 3.2TemporalTrendAnalysis TheMann-Kendalltestwasconductedtodetectanysignificanttrendsinannualprecipitation.Theresultsshowed(positive/negative)trends(p-value<0.05)inprecipitationpatternsoverthestudiedperiod.Se