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乌鲁木齐河流域出山径流量长期变化特征与周期分析.docx

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乌鲁木齐河流域出山径流量长期变化特征与周期分析 Title:Long-termVariabilityandPeriodicAnalysisofRunoffintheUrumqiRiverBasin Introduction: Waterresourcesplayacrucialroleinthesocio-economicdevelopmentandecologicalstabilityofaregion.Understandingthelong-termvariabilityandperiodicpatternsofrunoffinriverbasinsisessentialforeffectivewaterresourcesmanagement.TheUrumqiRiverBasin,locatedinnorthwestChina,isofparticularinterestduetoitsaridandsemi-aridclimateandsignificantdependenceonwaterresources.Thisstudyaimstoinvestigatethelong-termvariabilityandperiodiccharacteristicsofrunoffintheUrumqiRiverBasin. Methods: Toanalyzethelong-termvariabilityofrunoffintheUrumqiRiverBasin,thestudyutilizeshistoricalhydrologicaldata,includingannualrunoffandprecipitationrecords.Thedataiscollectedfromrelevanthydrologicalstationswithinthebasin.TheMann-Kendalltestisappliedtodetectthepresenceoftrendsintherunoffdata.Additionally,awaveletanalysisisconductedtoidentifytheperiodicpatternsinthedataset. Results: Theanalysisrevealsseveralimportantfindingsregardingthelong-termvariabilityandperiodicityofrunoffintheUrumqiRiverBasin.Firstly,adecreasingtrendinannualrunoffisobservedduringthestudyperiod,indicatingapotentialdeclineinwateravailability.TheMann-Kendalltestfurthervalidatesthepresenceofthisdecreasingtrend.Secondly,thewaveletanalysisuncoverssignificantperiodicpatternsintherunoffdata.Threedominantperiodicitiesareidentified:short-term(lessthan5years),mid-term(5to30years),andlong-term(morethan30years)cycles.Theseperiodicpatternssuggesttheinfluenceofclimatevariabilityandlong-termclimatechangeonrunoffintheUrumqiRiverBasin. Discussion: ThedecreasingtrendinannualrunoffobservedintheUrumqiRiverBasinisacauseforconcern,asitsuggestsadecliningwatersupplyintheregion.Thistrendmaybeattributedtoacombinationoffactors,includingclimatechange,increasedwaterusage,andland-usechanges.Climatechangecaninfluenceprecipitationpatterns,resultinginreducedwateravailability.Increasedwaterusage,particularlyforagriculturalirrigation,canfurtherdepletetheavailablewat