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沪铝期货价格与现货价格关系的实证研究.docx

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沪铝期货价格与现货价格关系的实证研究 Title:AnEmpiricalStudyontheRelationshipbetweenShanghaiAluminumFuturesPricesandSpotPrices:EvidenceResearch Abstract: ThispaperaimstoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenpricesofShanghaialuminumfuturesandspotaluminumprices.Thestudyemploysempiricalanalysisusingrelevantdatafromfinancialmarketsandconductsvariousstatisticalteststoestablishtherelationship.Findingssuggestthatthereexistsasignificantcorrelationbetweenthetwo,withfuturespricesoftenreflectingspotpricesduetoarbitrageopportunities.Thisstudycontributestotheexistingliteratureoncommoditypricedeterminationandprovidesinsightsforinvestorsandtradersinthealuminummarket. 1.Introduction 1.1Background 1.2ResearchObjective 1.3SignificanceoftheStudy 1.4StructureofthePaper 2.LiteratureReview 2.1TheoreticalFoundations 2.2PreviousResearchonCommodityFuturesandSpotPrices 2.3CurrentResearchGap 3.Methodology 3.1DataCollection 3.2DataAnalysisTechniques 3.3HypothesisDevelopment 4.EmpiricalResults 4.1DescriptiveStatistics 4.2CorrelationAnalysis 4.3Co-integrationAnalysis 4.4GrangerCausalityTest 5.Discussion 5.1InterpretationofResults 5.2TheRelationshipbetweenShanghaiAluminumFuturesandSpotPrices 5.3ImplicationsforInvestorsandTraders 5.4LimitationsoftheStudy 6.Conclusion 6.1SummaryofFindings 6.2ContributiontotheLiterature 6.3SuggestionsforFutureResearch 1.Introduction 1.1Background Aluminumisavitalindustrialmetal,widelyusedinsectorssuchasconstruction,transportation,andaerospace.Thefuturesmarketforaluminumprovidesaplatformforinvestorstospeculateonitsfuturepricemovementsandhedgeagainstpricevolatility.However,therelationshipbetweenfuturespricesandspotpricesremainsatopicofinterestanddebateamongresearchersandmarketparticipants. 1.2ResearchObjective TheprimaryobjectiveofthisstudyistoanalyzetherelationshipbetweenShanghaialuminumfuturespricesandspotprices.Byexaminingthehistoricaldataandconductingvariousstatisticaltests,thisresearchaimstoprovideempiricalevidenceonwhetherthereisasignificantcorrelationbetweenthetwo. 1.3Significanceofth